Sunday, December 14, 2003

Could Martin's appointment of former BC honcho Mike Harcourt to head a federal advisory committee on cities be just the first play in a strategy of coopting big name New Democrats for the 2004 campaign? Liberal pols close to PM have made no secret about lusting after NDP moderates in the West: Ujjal Dosanjh in BC, Janice Mackinnon in Saskatchewan, and Chris Axworthy in Manitoba have all been touted as potential star candidates. And if (improbably) they all run, how will Jack fill his own party's constellation with twinklers?

The NDP partisan-o-rama forum on rabble.ca has been alive with intriguing speculation. On the West Coast, the names being discussed are mostly retreads from previous regimes. Mary Woo Sims is actively seeking the NDP nod in Vancouver-Kingsway, entitling her to battle idle incumbent Sophia Leung, or whichever Grit MacBeth PM nudges to oust her. Usual suspects Ian Waddell and Tim Stevenson have both been mentioned as potential challengers to discredited parliamentary secretary Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre, though Waddell might spring for a bout with Paul Forseth in New Westminster-Port Coquitlam. TND would be a lot more excited to see defeated provincial leadership candidates Nils Jensen and Len Krog as federal candidates (Jensen in Victoria and Krog in one of the Nanaimo ridings), ex-CUPE prez Judy Darcy running in Vancouver, or even one of the better COPE councillors on the ballot. Heck, if Christy Clark jumps in, shall we all hold hands and visualize Joy MacPhail, MP?

Halifax is home for me now, so I take an interest in the party's fortunes back East. When Harper wins the leadership of the United Right, there's no telling how far Conservative support in the Maritimes will plunge, and where non-Liberal-inclined Maritimers will park their votes. Darrell Dexter's provincial New Democrats own Metro Halifax: Dartmouth MP Wendy Lill is retiring, but could be replaced on the ballot by an ex-MP like Gordon Earle or Peter Mancini. Alternatively, Mancini might be convinced to take a run at Sydney-Victoria, and Earle could be girding for a rematch with Liberal Geoff Regan in Halifax West (if he doesn't, former provincial leader Robert Chisholm would be an inspired pick).

Jack considers Ontario the province where he can make the biggest breakthrough in 2004, but he's going to need some major ground-level firepower to do it. Enter Ontario MPP Peter Kormos in Niagara Falls, Sid Ryan in Oshawa, and maybe even Ed Broadbent in Ottawa Centre. Layton's wife, Toronto councillor Olivia Chow, could probably take out Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina this time around.

Other GTA Libs are vulnerable, namely sacked Cabinet dunce Maria Minna in Beaches-East York, embattled MP Charles Caccia in Davenport, and junior Martin minister Jean Augustine in Etobicoke Lakeshore. Municipal New Democrats with strong local roots, like Irene Jones in Etobicoke Lakeshore and Martin Silva or Tony Silipo in Davenport, would be key to success in TO. (Allan Rock's old stomping ground in Etobicoke could also be up for grabs.) So, too, would a genuine celeb candidate like actor R.H. Thompson, TV personality Jian Ghomeshi, or Globe writer Michael Valpy. Ex-mayors David Christopherson and Cindy Forster could challenge Liberals in Hamilton Mountain and Welland. The party also needs to field some front-and-centre names in northern Ontario.

The wild card in all this? Quebec. Martin's expecting a clean sweep here, and exactly one Quebecker (Rt. Hon. B. Mulroney) will buy Harper's moving conversion to inclusive bilingual Canadianism. Where will all those soft nationalist votes end up? Could a fluently French-speaking centre-left party leader and his charismatic deputy win over a province that has only ever elected one New Democrat? Perhaps, if some ex-Bloquiste social democrats like Osvaldo Nunez and Daniel Turp can be brought on board, and maybe a few provincial Liberals like Mercier MNA Nathalie Rochefort for good measure. One thing's for sure: Pierre Ducasse must not be allowed to run again in Manicouagan, but rather, should get the party's backing in a francophone Montreal-area riding warmer to lefties. Hint from TND: Why not take on Gilles Duceppe in Laurier, to see how the votes split through a three-way battle royale?

Know this: Jack can beat Ed's record from '88 and take 40+ seats next year. To do so, he needs to stay on-messsage, recruit some excellent candidates, and make sure the current batch of MPs all get re-elected. (Well, okay, maybe not Bev Desjarlais.)
TND has come across some interesting babble about the possibility of BC Education Minister Christy Clark running against James Moore in the to-be-confirmed spring federal election. Clark is married to Mark Marissen of Burrard Communications, a leading member of PM's BC campaign team who still thinks the province will lovingly embrace his man. (Clark's brother, Bruce, serves on the Liberal Party of Canada's BC's executive.) Though she's deeply unpopular among many British Columbians (especially teachers, according to Mom), Clark just might stand a chance of mule-kicking up-and-comer Moore and sit at a bigger Cabinet table in Ottawa.

So: It appears Martin has been rebuffed by all the BC star candidates-to-be on his wish list (Martha Piper, David Emerson, Mike Phelps, Carole Taylor, etc.), and is now trawling through the second string. Shinder Purewal, a left-tipping SFU prof who ran against Chuck Cadman in 2000, looks set to win the nomination in Herb Dhaliwal's old stomping ground, but hardly qualifies as star material. Ditto Raymond Chan, the ex-Asia-Pacific minister who's bound to knock out CA-turned-Liberal incumbent Joe Peschisolido in a nasty rematch of their 2000 bout, this time fought inside the Richmond Grit riding association.

Who then, if not Clark? Kelowna fire chief Gerry Zimmerman was briefly a Giuliani-esque national icon and might stand a chance of dislodging the local CA-turned-Conservative, but so far he's mum on joining PM's team. Kamloops chief Bonnie Leonard is a possibility, and there's always the chance those rumours about Ujjal Dosanjh jumping to the federal Libs had some substance. Until then, thankfully, we have Stephen Owen.
No clear idea at this point how much blogging my new incarnation as a Katimavik project leader will allow, but really, where could TND even begin after a seven-month hiatus? What with the departure of the only prime minister TND has ever known, his replacement with a Liberal multimillionaire who sways to the right of Brian Mulroney, and the appointment of a new Cabinet that has Stephen Owen but also a lot of Tories in sheep's clothing? (Not to mention Al Gore endorsing Howard Dean.) Frankly, there are just not enough hours in the night.