PICKUPS UPDATE

AFN vice-chair Charles Fox lost the Liberal nomination in Kenora, so I'm bumping up that riding to "lean-to." Popular Selkirk councillor Duane Nicol is the NDP candidate in Selkirk-Interlake, which debuts in the same column. Judy Wasylycia-Leis will face Liberal Cabinet gremlin Rey Pagtakhan in Winnipeg North Centre, bumping her down one column from a sure-thing to a tossup. Note: Olivia Chow and Dave Christopherson are the presumptive candidates in their ridings, but not confirmed.

Now that NDP candidates have been nominated in most of the key ridings, here's my updated list of where the wins will come from this spring:

SURE-THINGS

Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh)
Brian Masse (Windsor West)
Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
Libby Davies (Vancouver East)
Svend Robinson (Burnaby-Douglas)
Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle)
Dick Proctor (Palliser)
Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre)
Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre)
Alexa McDonough (Halifax)
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore)
Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst)

LEAN-TO

Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
Larry Richardson (Thunder Bay-Rainy River)
Rui Pires (Davenport)
David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
Charley King (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam)
Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands)
Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
Bev Desjarlais (Churchill)
Lorene Mahoney (Kildonan-St. Paul)

HOPEFUL

Irene Mathyssen (London Fanshawe)
Monia Mazigh (Ottawa South)
Susan Barclay (Kenora)
David Turner (Victoria)
Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North)
Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley)
Steve McClurg (New Westminster-Coquitlam)

For those following along at home, that's 21 seats in the top tier, 12 in the second tier, and 7 at the bottom. As the campaign progresses, seats could move up or down in terms of winnability (my hunch is that Peter Julian and Charley King will both be in the top tier by Election Day, and Mazigh is a long-shot but I'm staying optimistic). Nickel Belt and Timmins-James Bay, in northern Ontario; Selkirk-Interlake in Manitoba; and Yukon are also good pickup bets, but have yet to nominate their candidates.