Two weeks ago, I laid out the odds on potential Liberal leadership candidates, even though only two of them (Martin Cauchon and Maurizio Bevilacqua) have made semi-public their interest in PM's desk. Cauchon remains the 3/1 favourite, with either Manley or McKenna as the Great Anglo Hope, and unilingual Maclellan or Goodale as the Token Westerner. Who, though, does TND dream about dining with at 24 Sussex in a too-good-to-be-true alternative universe?

Allan Rock, of course. Though I still think alternance will deliver Cauchon to Rideau for the big swearing-in, and frankly I'm none too upset about that. Otherwise, Stéphane Dion is clearly the brightest light in the dim constellation of ministerial Ottawa, and in any process based solely on merit would win hands-down (though he'd kill the chances of a Quebec Grit comeback beyond the island of Montreal). Gary Doer, who is Canada's most popular premier, and Ujjal Dosanjh, who was once Canada's least popular premier, would be sentimental favourites for obvious reasons. Elsewhere in Cabinet: Scott Brison is an exciting up-and-comer who would beat Bernard Delanoë in the race to be the first out head-of-state; Liza Frulla would be the best non-Cauchon francophone; and David Emerson has prime minister written all over him. I would dearly like to see a Liberal with the inegrity and intellectual firepower of Carolyn Bennett or Stephen Owen as top dog, but that might be too much to ask from a party that chose Chrétien just to run the gas works and Martin on blind faith.

An AP story I came across from September is worth looking at, for some interesting additions to the Kerry cabmin pool.

• Retired Gen. Merrill McPeak, former Sen. Warren Rudman (R-NH) and current Sen. John Warner (R-VA), or ranking House Armed Services Committee Dem. Ike Skelton (MO) get the nod for defsec;
• former Clinton Justice Department officials Eric Holder and Deval Patrick, Canuck-born Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, or "Joementum" Lieberman are mentioned for justice;
• Rudman, Hamilton, or Repub 9-11 Commission chairman Thomas Kean for DHS;
• Senate Chief of Staff David McKean for White House budget advisor;
• operatives John Sasso or David Gergen for White House chief of staff;
• Gateway co-founder Ted Waitt or BET honcho Robert Johnson for commerce;
• Rep. Denise Majette (D-GA), Rep. Greg Meeks (D-NY), or ex-Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber (a doctor) for DHS;
• Dem governors past and present, such as Jim Hunt (NC), Gary Locke (WA), Jim Hodges (SC), or Tom Vilsack (IA) for education;
• one-time Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater could get his old job back;
• if not Gep, then IAFF prez Harold Schaitberger or MA Rep. Stephen Lynch at labor;
• Reps. Leonard Boswell (D-IA) or Ron Kind (D-WI) for agriculture;
• Clinton-era Peace Corps director Mark Gearan or ex-CO Sen. Tim Wirth for interior;
• MA envirocrat John DeVillars or former Sen. Lowell Weicker (R-CT) for EPA head;
• Clinton vet affairs secretary Hershel Gober could get his old job back;
• former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell and 9-11 Commission vice-chair Lee Hamilton are touted as potential picks for Secretary of State;
• Western Sens. Maria Cantwell (WA) or Jeff Bingaman (NM) for energy; and,
• Hamilton for CIA/NID.

Links to come if time allows.

Chris Bowers, whose opinion I very much respect, has his lasted electoral predictions posted here. Unsurprisingly for a committed Dem, he's calling it for Kerry, but the math is solid and committed poll-humpers will know that the recent numbers bode well for the junior senator from Massachusetts. To summarize Bowers:

National Popular Vote Projection

Kerry 49.1
Bush 48.9
Other 2.0
Status: Toss-up

Polls Included: ABC, Rasmussen, TIPP and Zogby

Electoral Projection

Kerry Solid 202, Lean 109, Total: 311
Bush Solid 153, Lean 74, Total: 227

States changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH to Kerry

Personally, I think 311-227 sounds reasonable. I'm partial to EV 284-254, with Kerry taking Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa for the win. The newest polls out of Florida, Arkansas and Colorado are just stunning--sure, these could buckle overnight, but they show that 337-201 is not out of the realm of the possible. The key here, folks? It won't even be close.

At today's usual Thursday Lunch Out, both Alicia and Thomas were moved to disparage the monarchy and what it represents to us who kow-tow to Elizabeth II either as Queen of Canada or Queen of New Zealand. TND promised to reprint an eager paean to the crown and sceptre distributed some while back on the occasion of HM's 50th year on the throne, in the hope of moving naysayers to recant; here goes . . .

Friends, fellow citizens:

As you all are, or as the case may be, are not aware, Wednesday marks the fiftieth anniversary of the coronation of HM The Queen of Canada, Elizabeth II. She is rich, she does not like to be touched, and her general mockability has endeared her to generations of subjects at home and throughout the Commonwealth. All of that aside, I implore you to consider:

1. She is not elected. Is this really such a bad thing? An elected president would owe her selection to the government of the day, which in a country like this one would publicly divide her from a hell of a lot of people. Constitutional monarchy means our head of state is free of the taint of partisan politics. Furthermore, having an abstraction rather than a real person means your head of state is less likely to, oh, say, try to build a whimsical missle shield over the entire country or scupper the Kyoto Accord.

2. An appointed President, on the other hand, could never be much more than a dirty sock puppet of the federal government (imagine Romeo Leblanc, President of Canada). The Queen, however, transcends and encompasses both central and provincial governments. This is a purely Canadian thing, and it's one of the main reasons why our federation has lasted for more than 160 years. And yes, Isabelle, that does make us older than Germany.

4. Étienne Tâché, George Étienne Cartier, Laurier, and Jean Lesage all thought the Monarchy was a dandy idea. For what it's worth, francophone Canada has chosen the Monarchy more than once in its history, and in 1979, Lévesque voewed that so long as Québec stayed in, the Queen would stay, too, as a check on Ottawa's grabby hands. (The Queen speaks perfect French, too, which is nice.)

5. The Governor-General is Adrienne Clarkson. And her husband is John Ralston Saul. Granted, the next one could very well be some bachbench halfwit from Sarnia who once cracked a joke in caucus that tickled the prime minister's fancy. But let's just savour this for a while, shall we . . . ?

6. In a few years time, William will be lounging around on the throne, and touring his loyal Dominions wowing the subjects with those Julia Roberts teeth and passable remarks about Radiohead, and all of you will go conveniently amnesiac about those republican mutterings you once made at NDP Youth meetings, won't you?

So let's raise our goblets to Elizabeth, whose corgis are implanted with microchips so that they may be tracked and protected all across her vast regal estates. Her sceptre is a giant Nerf bat poised over the heads of those politicians who would play hard and fast with our Canadian democracy. Should we feel warmly about her? Her own children don't feel warmly about her. Should we pause for a moment of reflection on this, her Jubilee?

I leave that, dear subjects, to all of you.

Michael

FUN WITH ODDS: Herewith, the first in an occasional TND feature, handicapping the contenders (declared, undeclared, and otherwise) for the Liberal leadership convention that I would expect around, oh, say April 2005. Paul Martin, we barely knew thee! The candidates:

1. Martin Cauchon (PQ) 3/1
   
2. John Manley (ON) 5/1
   
3. Frank McKenna (NB) 8/1
   
4. Maurizio Bevilacqua (ON) 10/1
   
5. Denis Coderre (PQ) 10/1
   
6. Brian Tobin (NF) 16/1
   
7. Anne Maclellan (AB) 16/1
   
8. Gary Doer (MB) 20/1
   
9. Ralph Goodale (SK) 20/1
   
10. Scott Brison (NS) 25/1
    
11. Pierre Pettigrew (PQ) 25/1
    
12. Sheila Copps (ON) 25/1
    
13. Ujjal Dosanjh (BC) 40/1
    
14. Liza Frulla (PQ) 40/1
    
15. David Emerson (BC) 40/1
    
16. Allan Rock (BC) 40/1
    
17. Albina Guarnieri (ON) 60/1
    
18. Jean Charest (PQ) 60/1
19. Phil Fontaine (MB) 100/1
20. Stéphan Dion (PQ) 100/1