Some interesting news that I'm still figuring out how to digest . . . Charles Caccia, Liberal MP for Davenport, announced yesterday he's going to run as an Independent. Avid wonks may remember that Caccia was unceremoniously shanked by the Martinites, who preferred slick Tony Silva over the greenish-red vet.

Time to give NDP candidate Rui Pires another look. Pires is a social worker heavily involved with the Portuguese community who was born in the Azores but has been rooted in Davenport since he was three. Get this: He's fluent in English, French and Portuguese, speaks a bit of in Spanish, and is learning Mandarin. I had Pires in the "lean-to" column, but honestly, that was generous. He belongs there now as much as Tabuns, Martin, or other just-about-sure-fire New Dems. Even Caccia, apparently, concedes that his candidacy makes Davenport a likelier NDP pickup.

Publisher and musician Charlie Angus will carry the standard in Timmins-James Bay. Stick him on the hopeful list. Small businessman and ex-town councillor John Rafferty got the NDP nod in Thunder Bay-Rainy River, over Larry Richardson (whom I've been erroneously listing as the confirmed candidate).

Sidebar: SES Research has the NDP at 17% in a poll out today. Looks like the high teens is the permanent range. Once that's 20 or over more than once or twice, 40+ are in play.

Updated April 26th . . .

SURE-THINGS

Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh)
Brian Masse (Windsor West)
Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
Libby Davies (Vancouver East)
Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
Scott Fraser (Nanaimo-Alberni)
Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North)
Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle)
Dick Proctor (Palliser)
Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona)
Bev Desjarlais (Churchill)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre)
Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre)
Alexa McDonough (Halifax)
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore)
Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst)

LEAN-TO

Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
Larry Richardson (Thunder Bay-Rainy River)
Rui Pires (Davenport)
David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
Susan Barclay (Kenora)
Charley King (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam)
Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley)
Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands)
Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
Lorene Mahoney (Kildonan-St. Paul)
Duane Nicol (Selkirk-Interlake)
Earl Cook (Churchill Falls)
Pam Boyde (Yukon)

HOPEFUL

Irene Mathyssen (London Fanshawe)
Monia Mazigh (Ottawa South)
Claude Gravel (Nickel Belt)
David Turner (Victoria)
Steve McClurg (New Westminster-Coquitlam)

Burnaby-Douglas, which Svend has vacated for reasons which scarcely require discussion here, should remain a solid sure-thing, oily Bill Cunningham's appointment aside. Timmins-James Bay and Oshawa, two ridings where the NDP has a realistic chance, have yet to tap candidates. And alas, Olivia continues to be the presumptive nominee in T-S, not yet a confirmed candidate.

That's 24 sure-things, 15 lean-tos, and 5 hopefuls: 44 in total.

Scott Fraser's safe; Dave Haggard will be appointed by Martin to run in New Westminster-Coquitlam against Paul Forseth and New Dem Steve McClung. Also, Rick Laliberte announced he's not looking for the Liberal nomination in Churchill Falls and might even run as an independent, which vaults New Democrat Earl Cook into the lean-to column.

The Environics/CBC poll out this week has the NDP at 19% nationally, 31% in BC (32% in the GVRD), and 21% in Ontario. Those numbers in BC should be making me rethink my predictions about the province. I can see the Conservatives losing everything but a few Bible Belt seats in the Fraser Valley, plus the Peace River, Stock Day, and a couple of his neighbours in the southern Interior.

Vancouver Island, at the very least, should be painted orange in the upcoming election. Crowder, Fraser, and maybe Catherine Bell could all be considered sure-things; Garrison and Burgis are also looking extremely competitive, and even David Turner might get his long sought-after seat in Ottawa. In the Lower Mainland, Julian is undeniably edging onto sure-thing territory, with Charley King not far behind. That 30%+ range also makes Nathan Cullen a good bet in Skeena-BV.

Let's see if these numbers hold.

Longtime hack Pam Boyde won the NDP nomination in Yukon, add it to the "lean-to" list. Martin has appointed timber baron David Emerson to run against Waddell in Van-Kingsway, and ex-Mike Harcourt aide Shirley Chan to test Libby Davies in Van-East. Really, neither of these appointments will make much of a difference: Waddell's seat remains one of the two strongest possible pickups in BC (the other is Nanaimo-Cowichan), and Davies is the most sure-fire re-elect east of Winnipeg.

Rumours are still afloat that IWA boss Dave Haggard will run in Nanaimo-Alberni, which might jeopardize the chances of New Democrat Scott Fraser winning there. Wait and see.

Closer to home, Miles Richardson cinched the Liberal nomination in Skeena-Bulkley Valley, which could make Nathan Cullen's job of taking back this traditionally-NDP riding that much tougher. Still hopeful.