This just in . . . Stick a fork in Jim Gouk. The Con MP for Southern Interior reportedly announced on CBC Radio that he would not run in the next election, so as to "spend more time with his family" (trans.: "avoid a soul-crushing, Alan Keyes-magnitude defeat at the polls"). TND is rarely one to crow, but this one's in the bag, kids.

Two encouraging news items to start the week off right:

Denise Savoie won the NDP federal nomination in Victoria this weekend. Savoie is a popular Victoria councillor who was endorsed in the race by rookie MLAs Rob Fleming, David Cubberly, and Maurine Karagianis; she beat last year's candidate, uninspiring ex-mayor David Turner, on the first ballot. This is an open seat where the NDP stands a great chance of winning—and an even greater chance now that Savoie's name will be on the ballot.

Then there's this article in The Hill Times, which seems to suggest Comuzzi's on his way out. TND ranked Comuzzi's riding, Thunder Bay—Superior North, at the very bottom of the top 30 pickups list, but this news could change that. If Comuzzi packs it in due to C-38 (and good riddance to him on that account), the NDP's Bruce Hyer has a much clearer shot at bagging the seat. One to watch.

WHAT ABOUT SURREY NORTH?

The wild card for the NDP may be Surrey North. Chuck Cadman won almost double the number of votes claimed by his NDP rival in 2004. He’s practically a folk hero in the riding: a Mustel Group poll conducted in April ‘05 showed him with 45% to 26% for the NDP, 20% for the Liberals, and 6% for the Cons. A Compas poll released a month later had Cadman 43%, NDP 24%, Liberals 22%, Cons 10%. Cadman had a blinding, Obama-like 75% positive performance score, the highest score ever achieved by a politician in a Compas survey.

But Chuck is also sick with cancer, and it’s been rumoured that he’s too ill to attend upcoming votes in the Commons. That he will run again cannot be taken as a foregone conclusion. If Cadman retires, Surrey North automatically leap-frogs into the ranks of the NDP’s top potential pickups. Jim Karpoff, who represented the riding from 1988-93, ran against Cadman in ’04 and grabbed 24.1% of the votes—more than three times the 7.4 per cent that went to the party there in 2000. A June 2004 Compas study goes even further to show why this riding should be considered so favourably. When asked how they would vote in a hypothetical election involving candidates they knew nothing about, a whopping 37% of Surrey North residents said they would vote NDP, with no-name Grit and Con candidates garnering about 25% each. The same study found that support for Cadman was strongest among white older voters; support for Karpoff was highest among the young and voters of Sikh descent—he drew more support from under-40 voters than any other candidate (including Cadman) and had a 3:1 lead among Indo-Canadians.

In May, the NDP scorched Liberal incumbents across this riding. If Cadman doesn’t run next time, the NDP nomination and this seat are probably Karpoff’s for the taking. Who else could win it? Surrey councilors Penny Priddy, a former BC cabinet minister, or Judy Villeneuve, who ran against Cadman in ’97. (Another councilor, Bob Bose, has expressed interest in challenging Nina for Fleetwood—Port Kells.) There’s also Param Grewal, a program officer at PICS (Progressive Intercultural Community Services Society) associated with the National Farmworkers Union, who ran provincially in Surrey-Newton in 2001. TND would be excited to see someone from outside the NDP backbench in Surrey win this seat back. How about Monika Verma, ED of SEEDS (or Joan Smallwood's ex-assistant Aaron Gill, from the same organization), or Greg Terpenning, ED of Surrey Community Services?

THE ROAD TO 40: TND's TOP NDP-WINNABLE SEATS

A summary . . .

1. Western Arctic
2. Hamilton Mountain
3. New Westminster—Coquitlam
4. Palliser
5. Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
6. Southern Interior
7. Vancouver Island North
8. Newton—North Delta
9. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
10. Regina—Qu'Appelle
11. Trinity—Spadina
12. Oshawa
13. Nickel Belt
14. Victoria
15. London—Fanshawe
16. Kenora
17. Fleetwood—Port Kells
18. Nanaimo—Alberni
19. Yukon
20. Vancouver Centre
21. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre
22. Vancouver—Kingsway
23. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
24. Thunder Bay—Rainy River
25. Beaches—East York
26. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission
27. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
28. Parkdale—High Park
29. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
30. Thunder Bay—Superior North

THE NEXT 15 MOST NDP-WINNABLE RIDINGS

11. Trinity-Spadina. After the two Hamilton seats, the NDP’s best chance for an Ontario pickup is this GTA seat. Despite the fact that, her profile notwithstanding, Olivia Chow is not a particularly strong candidate, she will likely be re-nominated, and likely win if the NDP stays strong in the inner 416. Layton’s star power and generally strong performance throughout the recent parliamentary crisis should tip the scales in this neighbouring riding. Yes, the ballooning luxury condo vote and the shrinking Portuguese and Italian communities are not favourable, but Chow will win the champagne socialist Annex vote and do respectably enough in the riding's ethnic communities to prevail.

12. Oshawa. Though not traditionally NDP-leaning, Oshawa came close to sending labour leader Sid Ryan to Ottawa last year, and it presents all the opportunities and risks of a classic 3-way split. Belinda’s defection was a dagger in the heart of Tory fortunes in the 905, and though Colin Carrie squeaked by Ryan in the final days of the '04 campaign, Ryan now stands to benefit from soft Liberals and Red Tories moving to his corner.

13. Nickel Belt. With its mighty union base, this riding was already pretty closely split between the Liberals and NDP. New Democrat Claude Gravelle and Con Mike Dupoint proved in 2004 that it will be a tough climb to defeat incumbent Liberal Raymond Bonin. But with the NDP polling at around 20% in Ontario, Gravelle should have the momentum.

14. Victoria. Federally, Victoria is not an NDP city: the party has held it only once (John Brewin from 1988-93). Still, David Anderson’s retirement presents an open seat that contains two provincial ridings (Beacon Hill and Hillside) that resoundingly elected New Democrats in May. The Liberals had hoped to run Victoria mayor Alan Lowe, but he took a pass, and they chose second-place 2004 Saanich North contender David Mulroney instead. The Cons wanted Russ Courtnall, but will have to opt for an also-ran. While Oak Bay/Uplands may go blue, the Cons are not strong in the riding as a whole, and the NDP would be well-served by a candidate who can confront Mulroney in the centre-left. School board chair Charley Beresford has high name-recognition after her unsuccessful provincial bid in OBGH, and city councillor Denise Savoie is also said to be interested.

15. London-Fanshawe. Must make this point straightaway: Pat O’Brien is not Chuck Cadman. O’Brien’s inexplicable reign over London-Fanshawe will end soon. As an Independent, he does not possess the deep-seated popularity in this community to hold on. Traditional Liberal voters will split between O’Brien and whomever the Grit riding association taps to take him on, while religious conservatives who might otherwise have flocked to his gay-baiting will also have a pleasingly-retrograde Con candidate to support. Rae-era cabmin Irene Mathyssen took 30% to O’Brien’s 38%: all she needs is for his vote to split down the middle and hers to hold.

16. Kenora. In 2004, the Liberals won with 1000 votes over the NDP, who won 1000 votes more than the Cons. Provincially, PCs used to win here routinely, but Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton has sewn up contemporary Kenora. New Democrat Susan Barclay has the best shot at defeating the freshman Liberal incumbent.

17. Fleetwood—Port Kells. Nina Grewal has been pilloried for her silence in the face of accusations that hubby Gurmant shopped her vote to the PMO in exchange for a Senate seat. Woefully under-qualified, an object of scorn and derision in the media, Nina will soon be joining her husband at home. Fraser Heights on the north side of Hwy 1 leans to the centre-right, while the rest of the riding is a mix. Still, the 2004 results—CPC 35.8%, Liberal 29.5%, NDP 28%—mirrored the overall result in BC, despite the fact that the New Democrats fielded uninspiring local warhorse Barry Bell. This is a riding in which the NDP absolutely must put forward a strong candidate from the Indo-Canadian community in the mold of Jag Brar or Harry Bains.

18. Nanaimo-Alberni. There are decades-old entrenched NDP precincts here, with many unionized forestry workers and a CCF fortress in Port Alberni. Yet the retirement gulag of North Nanaimo, Lantzville, Nanoose Bay, Parksville, and Qualicum Beach constitutes the largest contiguous belt of centre-right support on the Island. This area also represents the majority of polls within the riding. Former Tofino mayor and 2004 federal candidate Scott Fraser went on to win a provincial approximation of this riding in May 2005. James Lunney is not the strongest MP, and a credible NDP candidate could take him out.

19. Yukon. The incumbent is quite popular in this riding, and the Yukon has a history of supporting federal incumbents. Larry Bagnell even won the endorsement of the conservative Yukon Party in 2004. The NDP candidate, Pam Boyde, was weak, yet took 25% of the vote to Bagnell’s 45%. A better candidate (hear my cry, Tony Penikett) would be enough to clinch it.

20. Vancouver Centre. The NDP has put Queen Hedy on its dartboard with no serious payoff in every election since 1993. Based on the provincial outcome in May, this riding may in fact be trending away from New Democrats—any candidate would need to be able to make a respectable showing in Yaletown, North False Creek and Coal Harbour, and clean up in the West End. Hence the persistent rumours that Svend Robinson will emerge from self-imposed retirement to seek the nomination here. If Svend runs, this will become an NDP seat. So, too, if Kennedy Stewart runs again. With luck, progressives in Van Centre will not be so easily fearmongered by Martin, and park their votes with the New Democrats rather than squander them on a Green.

21. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre. The Cons won here in 2004 in a very close 3-way race. At that time, the Calvert government had just introduced a tough budget that hurt New Democrats badly in several federal races. Now the province is flush, and the NDP will be the only viable alternative to the Cons. No word on a candidate.

22. Vancouver—Kingsway. The voter migration matrix favours the NDP in this riding, and New Democrat Ian Waddell came close to winning it in 2004. But David Emerson is a senior Cabinet minister now, with strong links in the Chinese-speaking community and a lot of political capital. If the Liberals can run a good possum campaign and trick NDP voters into supporting Emerson to stop the Cons, the industry minister will keep his seat. All depends on who the riding association picks. Is there a Chinese-Canadian New Democrat who could run here? Paging Cheeying Ho or Gabriel Yiu?

23. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing. Liberal Brent St. Denis faced a stiff challenge from New Democrat Carol Hughes in '04. The NDP is growing stronger in northern Onario, and the Conservatives have failed to capitalize effectively on locally-popular positions vis-à-vis the gun registry and SSM. The Cons are likely to nominate unimpressive Terry McCutcheon, who finished a third in the '03 provincial bout; truly, he cannot win, and some Liberal voters will turn to the NDP once they realize that strategic considerations are no longer necessary.

24. Thunder Bay—Rainy River. Many of the same comments for the previous riding also apply here. '04 contender John Rafferty has been renominated—thrice—to run for the NDP in this sprawling northern riding. MP Ken Boshcoff has had little influence from the backbenches, and with the city in continuing economic decline and the Liberals continuing to ignore Northern Ontario, voters will opt for a change.

25. Beaches—East York. Crunch the numbers and the sad truth becomes apparent: by all accounts, BEY is not winnable. Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca is more winnable. Saskatoon—Humboldt is more winnable. For the love of Ed, Random—Burin—St. George’s is more winnable! Verily, BEY makes the tail-end of the list not for sentimental reasons, but because Ontario MPP Marilyn Churley will almost certainly be wearing the NDP sash in the next election, and she cannot be considered anything other than Maria Minna's worst nightmare. Churley has been elected four times from Toronto-Danforth and lives in South Riverdale. More importantly, she knows how to campaign, which sadly cannot be said for her '04 predecessor, Peter Tabuns. One to watch.

After a long and humbling hiatus, the likelihood of a federal election in the none-too-distant future has brought TND is back from the dead for more political prognosticating that no-one will read. Passage of the NDP’s first-ever federal budget now seems all but assured, and Jack is enjoying stature and credibility on the Hill (and in the parliamentary press gallery) no one would have predicted pre-Gomery. The party’s biggest asset remains a stunning degree of Conservative weakness in its BC and Prairie heartlands—expect to see many more gains at the expense of Stephen Harper than Paul Martin. The GVRD, Vancouver, Hamilton, Regina, and northern Ontario are the regions where New Democrats should be spending money, making serious media buys, and recruiting top-tier candidates.

Below is a list of TND's Top 10 most winnable ridings for the NDP in a hypothetical federal election. Projections below are based on current poll numbers, the 2004 results and historical trends, and calculations using the UBC Election Stock Market’s voter migration matrix. The Top 10 will be followed soon by the Next 15 most winnable ridings, and then a quick overview of the country's most endangered New Democrats. Enjoy!

TOP 10 winnable ridings

1. Western Arctic. Undisputably the number one pickup target nationwide. A judicial recount in 2004 gave this riding to Liberal Cabinet nobody Ethel Blondin-Andrew by a meagre 53 votes. Now that ex-NWT premier Stephen Kakfwi has announced he will not be running (as a Liberal or Independent), New Democrat Dennis Bevington should be able to turn this one orange. The NDP has steadily increased its vote total in NWT over the last 20 years, and the cany nomination of a prominent aboriginal politician by the Cons will serve to split Blondin-Andrew's traditional First Nations base.

2. Hamilton Mountain. Perennial NDP candidate Chris Charlton is trying once more in this riding where Liberal benchwarmer Beth Phinney has announced her retirement after 16 years. The Grits are running well-known city councillor Bill Kelly, while the Conservatives picked Don Graves, a man so far notable for general lack of notability. Charlton has run here five times and offers a credible alternative for those unwilling to reelect the adscammers. This open seat, plus Stoney Creek and Christopherson in Centre, should give the NDP a gratifying steeltown trifecta.

3. New Westminster-Coquitlam. Party hack Steve McClurg came within 113 votes of unseating Con Paul Foreseth in 2000, but this is more a condemnation than a plug, since New West should be a slum dunk for any New Democrat in a good year. Steve went on to lose the provincial nod to councillor Chuck Puchmayr, who obliterated Campbell cabmin Graham Bruce in May. Sadly, Steve has not learned his lesson from any of this, and is running again for the federal nomination. He will face ex-MP Dawn Black, who has profile in the community but (worryingly) lost to Forseth in both '93 and '97. Either one could make New West a steal.

4. Palliser. Dick Proctor lost this seat to Con Dave Batters by 124 votes in 2004—ironically, the Martin scare campaign delivered this seat in the dying days of the last election by diverting votes from close-second Proctor to a no-hope Liberal. With Proctor ensconced in Ottawa as Jack's handsomely-remunerated chief-of-staff, the task of winning this one back will fall to transition house worker Joanne Dussel.

5. Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar. This mouthful went NDP in '97, and would have stayed in the fold in 2000 had the present boundaries been used. Nettie Wiebe, outspoken past president of the National Farmers Union turned university lecturer, ran and lost in adjacent Saskatoon—Humboldt in '04 but will carry the party's standard in this more attractive riding this year. This sets up a battle royale between Wiebe and Con incumbent Carol Skelton, one of her party’s few higher-profile female MPs. Last year, the NDP took 36% and the Liberals 14%, while Skelton carried it off with 44%. If Wiebe focuses on the rural precincts where Moe Kovatch did poorly, she can carry it back.

6. Southern Interior. The western end of this riding, from Princeton to Keremeos and Oliver/Osoyoos in the South Okanagan and eastward to Grand Forks, is where Cons have their strength, but this is the smaller part of the riding (despite its stronger population growth). The provincial NDP vote in the eastern end—Nelson, Castlegar, Rossland, and Trail—was well over 60%. No-name candidate Alex Atamanenko came within 680 votes of toppling Reform-Alliance-Con neanderthal Jim Gouk in 2004, in a riding where the Liberal vote barely figured. Head office will be targeting this riding after investing so few resources last time.

7. Vancouver Island North. Note that this seat is not just the northern half of the Island, but also includes a large slice of the BC mainland which has traditionally been decent territory for the NDP. With the New Democrats strong in the resource communities and the Cons holding their base in the retirement homes, this will be a turnout election. The provincial version of this riding went for New Democrat Claire Trevena in May, and NDP candidate Catherine Bell was only 483 votes off in '04.

8. Newton-North Delta. Disgraced secret agent Gurmant Grewal—should he foolishly opt to run again—will surely be a top NDP target in BC, if not the top target. In 2004, college professor Nancy Clegg came 1492 votes behind Grewal; in May, New Democrats Harry Bains and Guy Gentner won the concurrent provincial ridings by hefty margins. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population that goes NDP provincially, but Liberal or Conservative federally. If Sukh Dhaliwal runs for the Liberals again, he will give the NDP a run for its money. Otherwise, the NDP should be able to put Gurmant on permanent stress leave.

9. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek. Overshadowed by the tussle last year between Grit lifers Sheila Coops and Tony Valeri was the fact that this riding ultimately anted up just 927 more votes to a senior Martin Cabinet minister than it did to NDP steelworker Tony DePaulo. Labour council president Wayne Marston looks set to be the NDP candidate.

10. Regina-Qu’Appelle. No word yet on whether NDP vet Lorne Nystrom will vy for his old seat, but if he does, this should be considered top-tier. Conservative support in the West sans Alberta is crumbling, and the NDP is up. Con upstart Andrew Scheer has done little to distinguish himself since upsetting Lorne and must be considered extremely vulnerable. One factor to watch: there are 12 reserves in this riding, and 15% of the total population is aboriginal. If the First Nations vote turns out en masse to dump Scheer, the Liberals could pick up a lot of votes.