REVISED TOP 20 PICK-UPS
TND is not going out on a limb in predicting that BC is the province where the NDP's fortunes shall be made or broken in the 2006 post-Gomery election. National polls show the Cons tanking, consistently trailing the Grits by 10 points, and bringing Harper & Co. into the perilous territory of a 20-seat loss. Ipsos and Mustel both put out polls on Oct. 3rd showing the Cons stalled at 23% in the West beyond the West; Mustel had the Liberals leading the NDP in BC by a wider margin than Ipsos, but the basic message here is that those ridings where the New Democrat's main challenger is a Liberal (Vancouver Centre, Victoria) may be out of reach, while those where the principal rival is a Con (Surrey North, Van Island North, BC Southern Interior) are in play.
The NDP is stuck at 17% nationally, so at least the core vote from the Broadbent years has come home, and if that level of support stays steady, it should translate into 5-8 more seats. Soaring Liberal strength in Ontario means that, while Layton and Christopherson and the two Windsor MPs are safe, Charlie Angus is in trouble and Ottawa—Centre is all but lost. In BC, as elsewhere, voters in the centre are parking their support with the Liberals. How much of that between-elections, Rob Thomas-light Liberal support melts away--and to whom--will determine whether the NDP picks up 2 seats or a dozen.
If Election Day were tomorrow, TND says the NDP would take 25 seats. But where? Here's the rundown:
Western Arctic (1) went to Liberal seat-warmer Ethel-Blondin Andrew by an embarrassing margin of 53 votes in ’04. Not only is New Democrat Dennis Bevington, her main challenger in that contest, running again, but the nomination of aboriginal politico Richard Edjercon by the Cons should split the First Nations vote right down the middle. TND predicts: This one turns orange even if we lose incumbents in the next election.
Further south, the death of indie MP Chuck Cadman created, hands down, the best NDP pickup opportunity in BC. A June 2004 Compas study showed that, in a hypothetical race with generic candidates, 37% of Surrey North (2) residents would go NDP, with a no-name Grit and Con taking about 25% each. Last time, Jim Karpoff was the NDP pick: he held the seat from 1988-93 and trebled the party’s 2000 vote. In May, the NDP scorched Liberal incumbents across this urban riding, where more than 36% of the population is new Canadian and one of the biggest South Asian communities in the country makes its home. The Cons are running Dave Matta, an Indo-Canadian, while the Liberals could tap Dan Sheal, James Miller, or Dave Hayer. After she declined to run for re-election with the new Surrey Civic Coalition, councillor and ex-provincial cabmin Penny Priddy became the subject of much New Dem excitement in the blogosphere, her candidacy all but assured. And while the much-balloyhooed independent candidacies of Cadman widow Dona and daughter Jody did not materialize, there will be a law-and-order indie running in Surrey North: Nina Rivet, whose sister was killed in an infamous street racing incident.
A mere 0.3% of the vote separated NDP candidate Steve McClurg from victory over Con MP Paul Forseth in New Westminster—Coquitlam (3) last year. Next year, Forseth will defend himself against a woman he beat twice, but who now looks far more formidable considering the revival of NDP support in BC: one-time MP Dawn Black. With unionista backstabber Dave Haggard likely to run for the Liberals in Fleetwood-Port Kells this time, rumour has it the Grits have a big-name local candidate lined up. Mind you, it could just as easily be Joyce Murray.
Like the aforementioned riding, many of TND's top bets are seats where the NDP came close in 2004, and—given the apparent solidity of its 3% improvement on the popular vote that year—should now be considered likely pick-ups. Seats like Palliser (4), which Con backbencher Dave Batters won by 124 votes. Dick Proctor lost it, Joanne Dusel will take it back. Or Vancouver Island North (5), where cook and BCGEU veep Catherine Bell has been nominated to unseat Con MP John Duncan, who beat her by 483 votes in '04. Or Hamilton Mountain (6), where the fifth time's the charm for New Dem Chris Charlton, facing city councillor Bill Kelly (Lib) and notably unnotable Don Graves (Con) for an open seat vacated by Grit Beth Phinney. Or BC Southern Interior (7): Here, 60-year-old retired schoolteacher and New Democrat Alex Atamanenko is running again, but the Con MP he lost to last year by only 680 votes is not. With Jim Gouk out, the Cons are fielding parachute candidate Derek Zeisman. The provincial NDP vote in the eastern end—Nelson, Castlegar, Rossland, and Trail—was well over 60%.
Same holds true for Regina—Qu’Appelle (8). Con anklebiter Andrew Scheer is simply too young to have had many grown-up jobs. He sold insurance for a while, and once filed mail for the Office of the Official Opposition Leader. His current gig, as MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle, is just as tenuous. Lorne is back, Andrew Scheer, and you are sitting in his chair.
In Newton—North Delta (9), ’06 just might be a re-match of ’04, with all the main candidates running again: Secret Agent Grewal has announced he will seek the Con nod; Sukh Dhaliwal is the favourite to represent the Grits; and Kwantlen economics prof Nancy Clegg will be wearing her NDP hat. New Democrats Harry Bains and Guy Gentner won the concurrent provincial ridings in May, so unless the Cons give Gurmant the boot, only Dhaliwal stands in the way of a high-profile pick-up.
London Mayor Anne Marie DeCicco shot down a point-blank come-on from the fed Lib riding association in London—Fanshawe (10), which is casting about with increasing desperation for someone to run against the NDP's Irene Mathyssen. DeCicco saw the writing on the wall. If Liberal defector Pat O'Brien runs as an Independent, he will take some of his old supporters with him, weakening both the Liberal and the Con candidate, attorney Dan Mailer. Rae-era cabmin Mathyssen took 30% to O’Brien’s 38% in '04, and she has been all over this riding in the past year. Mathyssen consistently polls 10-15% ahead of her party, but all she needs is for O'Brien's vote to split down the middle and hers to hold.
In Kenora (11), United Church minister Susan Barclay is the New Democrat, Bill Brown is the Con, and MP Roger Valley is the Liberal. In '04, Valley won with 1000 votes over Barclay, who won 1000 votes more than the Cons. Provincially, PCs used to win here routinely, but Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton has sewn up contemporary Kenora. If Jack's prediction of gains in northern Ontario comes true on election night, it will start here.
Though not traditionally NDP-leaning, Oshawa (12) came close to sending labour leader Sid Ryan to Ottawa last year, and it presents all the opportunities and risks of a classic 3-way split. If he runs again, Ryan stands to benefit from soft Liberals and Red Tories moving to his corner.
Right now, the Liberal numbers in BC would suggest that David Mulroney (no relation) is a shoe-in for David Anderon's old Victoria (13) seat. But Liberal numbers in BC have a habit of going south once a writ is dropped, and Grit David v. 2.0 is as lacklustre as Grit David v. 1.0 was middling. Complicating matters further is the nomination of silver-tongued, Sorbonne-educated Robin Baird by the Cons, and popular left-leaning municipal pol Denise Savoie by the New Democrats. Savoie should at least improve on the '04 vote, and Baird just might lure enough centre-right voters into his column to deny Mulroney the win.
University prof and ex-farmers union honcho Nettie Wiebe ran and lost in adjacent Saskatoon—Humboldt in '04, but this year will carry the party's standard in Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar (14), a frankly more attractive prospect. This sets up a battle royale between Wiebe and Con incumbent Carol Skelton, one of her party’s few high-profile female MPs. Last year, the NDP took 36% and the Liberals 14%, while Skelton carried it off with 44%. If Wiebe focuses on the rural precincts, she can carry SRB back to where it was in '97.
The same dynamic of Liberal strength and Con bottoming-out that is driving seats like Victoria and Van Centre down the rankings has buoyed Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission (15), at the edge of the GVRD. Journalist Mike Bocking is leading the orange charge against fundie MP Randy Kamp. Kamp's margin of victory was 5.8% last time, but the Liberals are not a factor, so declining Con numbers bode well for the New Dems. Voters in Maple Ridge were reminded in May how much they liked to cast ballots for the NDP, and hopefully that sensation will resonate at the federal ballot box. TND taps this as one to watch, and a potential echo of Nathan Cullen's upset in Skeena—Bulkley Valley last time around. Like Skeena, Nickel Belt (16) could be swayed by the NDP's northern appeal: New Democrat Claude Gravelle will face Lib incumbent Ray Bonin in a repeat of their '04 contest. Con Margaret Schwartzentruber will not be a factor.
Nina is a major liability for the Cons in Fleetwood—Port Kells (17), despite recent efforts to rehabilitate her public image and slip the surly bounds of Grewal-ness. Touted for the Liberal nomination: provincial cabmin lemmings Gulzar Cheema and Brenda Locke, and union boss Dave Haggard, who is jumping over from New Westminister—Coquitlam, where he ran in ’04. Possible New Democrats include mental health activist John Russell, warhorse Barry Bell, and councillor Judy Villeneuve. Woefully under-qualified, an object of scorn and derision in the media, Nina will soon be joining her husband at home.
For Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre (18), it's Mo Kovatch again on the NDP side. The Cons won here in 2004 in a very close 3-way race. At that time, the Calvert government had just introduced a tough budget that hurt New Democrats badly in several federal races. Now the province is flush, and the NDP will be the only viable alternative to Tom Lukiwski.
After Van Island North and Victoria, the voter migration matrix favours Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca as the best NDP hope for a pick-up on rock-ribbed prog Vancouver Island. Saanich—Gulf Island also has its boosters. In TND's humble opinion, the big target should be Nanaimo—Alberni (19), with its old-school NDP union vote and the CCF fortress of Port Alberni. The '05 candidate, Scott Fraser, won a provincial approximation of this riding in May, and the riding association has yet to nominate a successor. But a strong candidate would have a better-than-decent shot at taking out James Lunney in this riding where surging Liberal numbers provincially will have less impact.
Tied for last place, TND has Vancouver Centre and Trinity—Spadina (20), because honestly, no list would be complete without them. The NDP's direction in polls and local personalities will be so crucial in both of these seats, and at this point it's just too early to write either of them off. In a perfect world, Trinity—Spadina should be one of the party's best bets for a pickup in Ontario, but Chow has not been nominated yet, and rumours persist that Tony Ianno will bow out to a big name star recruit (Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae). In Van Centre, Svend Robinson's presumed entry into the race could cut either way: he could become a media black hole, stucking the oxygen out of other campaigns across the country, and damaging NDP prospects with soft Liberal voters; or he could prove the only candidate capable of finally persuading the GBLT community to depose Queen Hedy. Time will tell.
TND is not going out on a limb in predicting that BC is the province where the NDP's fortunes shall be made or broken in the 2006 post-Gomery election. National polls show the Cons tanking, consistently trailing the Grits by 10 points, and bringing Harper & Co. into the perilous territory of a 20-seat loss. Ipsos and Mustel both put out polls on Oct. 3rd showing the Cons stalled at 23% in the West beyond the West; Mustel had the Liberals leading the NDP in BC by a wider margin than Ipsos, but the basic message here is that those ridings where the New Democrat's main challenger is a Liberal (Vancouver Centre, Victoria) may be out of reach, while those where the principal rival is a Con (Surrey North, Van Island North, BC Southern Interior) are in play.
The NDP is stuck at 17% nationally, so at least the core vote from the Broadbent years has come home, and if that level of support stays steady, it should translate into 5-8 more seats. Soaring Liberal strength in Ontario means that, while Layton and Christopherson and the two Windsor MPs are safe, Charlie Angus is in trouble and Ottawa—Centre is all but lost. In BC, as elsewhere, voters in the centre are parking their support with the Liberals. How much of that between-elections, Rob Thomas-light Liberal support melts away--and to whom--will determine whether the NDP picks up 2 seats or a dozen.
If Election Day were tomorrow, TND says the NDP would take 25 seats. But where? Here's the rundown:
Western Arctic (1) went to Liberal seat-warmer Ethel-Blondin Andrew by an embarrassing margin of 53 votes in ’04. Not only is New Democrat Dennis Bevington, her main challenger in that contest, running again, but the nomination of aboriginal politico Richard Edjercon by the Cons should split the First Nations vote right down the middle. TND predicts: This one turns orange even if we lose incumbents in the next election.
Further south, the death of indie MP Chuck Cadman created, hands down, the best NDP pickup opportunity in BC. A June 2004 Compas study showed that, in a hypothetical race with generic candidates, 37% of Surrey North (2) residents would go NDP, with a no-name Grit and Con taking about 25% each. Last time, Jim Karpoff was the NDP pick: he held the seat from 1988-93 and trebled the party’s 2000 vote. In May, the NDP scorched Liberal incumbents across this urban riding, where more than 36% of the population is new Canadian and one of the biggest South Asian communities in the country makes its home. The Cons are running Dave Matta, an Indo-Canadian, while the Liberals could tap Dan Sheal, James Miller, or Dave Hayer. After she declined to run for re-election with the new Surrey Civic Coalition, councillor and ex-provincial cabmin Penny Priddy became the subject of much New Dem excitement in the blogosphere, her candidacy all but assured. And while the much-balloyhooed independent candidacies of Cadman widow Dona and daughter Jody did not materialize, there will be a law-and-order indie running in Surrey North: Nina Rivet, whose sister was killed in an infamous street racing incident.
A mere 0.3% of the vote separated NDP candidate Steve McClurg from victory over Con MP Paul Forseth in New Westminster—Coquitlam (3) last year. Next year, Forseth will defend himself against a woman he beat twice, but who now looks far more formidable considering the revival of NDP support in BC: one-time MP Dawn Black. With unionista backstabber Dave Haggard likely to run for the Liberals in Fleetwood-Port Kells this time, rumour has it the Grits have a big-name local candidate lined up. Mind you, it could just as easily be Joyce Murray.
Like the aforementioned riding, many of TND's top bets are seats where the NDP came close in 2004, and—given the apparent solidity of its 3% improvement on the popular vote that year—should now be considered likely pick-ups. Seats like Palliser (4), which Con backbencher Dave Batters won by 124 votes. Dick Proctor lost it, Joanne Dusel will take it back. Or Vancouver Island North (5), where cook and BCGEU veep Catherine Bell has been nominated to unseat Con MP John Duncan, who beat her by 483 votes in '04. Or Hamilton Mountain (6), where the fifth time's the charm for New Dem Chris Charlton, facing city councillor Bill Kelly (Lib) and notably unnotable Don Graves (Con) for an open seat vacated by Grit Beth Phinney. Or BC Southern Interior (7): Here, 60-year-old retired schoolteacher and New Democrat Alex Atamanenko is running again, but the Con MP he lost to last year by only 680 votes is not. With Jim Gouk out, the Cons are fielding parachute candidate Derek Zeisman. The provincial NDP vote in the eastern end—Nelson, Castlegar, Rossland, and Trail—was well over 60%.
Same holds true for Regina—Qu’Appelle (8). Con anklebiter Andrew Scheer is simply too young to have had many grown-up jobs. He sold insurance for a while, and once filed mail for the Office of the Official Opposition Leader. His current gig, as MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle, is just as tenuous. Lorne is back, Andrew Scheer, and you are sitting in his chair.
In Newton—North Delta (9), ’06 just might be a re-match of ’04, with all the main candidates running again: Secret Agent Grewal has announced he will seek the Con nod; Sukh Dhaliwal is the favourite to represent the Grits; and Kwantlen economics prof Nancy Clegg will be wearing her NDP hat. New Democrats Harry Bains and Guy Gentner won the concurrent provincial ridings in May, so unless the Cons give Gurmant the boot, only Dhaliwal stands in the way of a high-profile pick-up.
London Mayor Anne Marie DeCicco shot down a point-blank come-on from the fed Lib riding association in London—Fanshawe (10), which is casting about with increasing desperation for someone to run against the NDP's Irene Mathyssen. DeCicco saw the writing on the wall. If Liberal defector Pat O'Brien runs as an Independent, he will take some of his old supporters with him, weakening both the Liberal and the Con candidate, attorney Dan Mailer. Rae-era cabmin Mathyssen took 30% to O’Brien’s 38% in '04, and she has been all over this riding in the past year. Mathyssen consistently polls 10-15% ahead of her party, but all she needs is for O'Brien's vote to split down the middle and hers to hold.
In Kenora (11), United Church minister Susan Barclay is the New Democrat, Bill Brown is the Con, and MP Roger Valley is the Liberal. In '04, Valley won with 1000 votes over Barclay, who won 1000 votes more than the Cons. Provincially, PCs used to win here routinely, but Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton has sewn up contemporary Kenora. If Jack's prediction of gains in northern Ontario comes true on election night, it will start here.
Though not traditionally NDP-leaning, Oshawa (12) came close to sending labour leader Sid Ryan to Ottawa last year, and it presents all the opportunities and risks of a classic 3-way split. If he runs again, Ryan stands to benefit from soft Liberals and Red Tories moving to his corner.
Right now, the Liberal numbers in BC would suggest that David Mulroney (no relation) is a shoe-in for David Anderon's old Victoria (13) seat. But Liberal numbers in BC have a habit of going south once a writ is dropped, and Grit David v. 2.0 is as lacklustre as Grit David v. 1.0 was middling. Complicating matters further is the nomination of silver-tongued, Sorbonne-educated Robin Baird by the Cons, and popular left-leaning municipal pol Denise Savoie by the New Democrats. Savoie should at least improve on the '04 vote, and Baird just might lure enough centre-right voters into his column to deny Mulroney the win.
University prof and ex-farmers union honcho Nettie Wiebe ran and lost in adjacent Saskatoon—Humboldt in '04, but this year will carry the party's standard in Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar (14), a frankly more attractive prospect. This sets up a battle royale between Wiebe and Con incumbent Carol Skelton, one of her party’s few high-profile female MPs. Last year, the NDP took 36% and the Liberals 14%, while Skelton carried it off with 44%. If Wiebe focuses on the rural precincts, she can carry SRB back to where it was in '97.
The same dynamic of Liberal strength and Con bottoming-out that is driving seats like Victoria and Van Centre down the rankings has buoyed Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission (15), at the edge of the GVRD. Journalist Mike Bocking is leading the orange charge against fundie MP Randy Kamp. Kamp's margin of victory was 5.8% last time, but the Liberals are not a factor, so declining Con numbers bode well for the New Dems. Voters in Maple Ridge were reminded in May how much they liked to cast ballots for the NDP, and hopefully that sensation will resonate at the federal ballot box. TND taps this as one to watch, and a potential echo of Nathan Cullen's upset in Skeena—Bulkley Valley last time around. Like Skeena, Nickel Belt (16) could be swayed by the NDP's northern appeal: New Democrat Claude Gravelle will face Lib incumbent Ray Bonin in a repeat of their '04 contest. Con Margaret Schwartzentruber will not be a factor.
Nina is a major liability for the Cons in Fleetwood—Port Kells (17), despite recent efforts to rehabilitate her public image and slip the surly bounds of Grewal-ness. Touted for the Liberal nomination: provincial cabmin lemmings Gulzar Cheema and Brenda Locke, and union boss Dave Haggard, who is jumping over from New Westminister—Coquitlam, where he ran in ’04. Possible New Democrats include mental health activist John Russell, warhorse Barry Bell, and councillor Judy Villeneuve. Woefully under-qualified, an object of scorn and derision in the media, Nina will soon be joining her husband at home.
For Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre (18), it's Mo Kovatch again on the NDP side. The Cons won here in 2004 in a very close 3-way race. At that time, the Calvert government had just introduced a tough budget that hurt New Democrats badly in several federal races. Now the province is flush, and the NDP will be the only viable alternative to Tom Lukiwski.
After Van Island North and Victoria, the voter migration matrix favours Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca as the best NDP hope for a pick-up on rock-ribbed prog Vancouver Island. Saanich—Gulf Island also has its boosters. In TND's humble opinion, the big target should be Nanaimo—Alberni (19), with its old-school NDP union vote and the CCF fortress of Port Alberni. The '05 candidate, Scott Fraser, won a provincial approximation of this riding in May, and the riding association has yet to nominate a successor. But a strong candidate would have a better-than-decent shot at taking out James Lunney in this riding where surging Liberal numbers provincially will have less impact.
Tied for last place, TND has Vancouver Centre and Trinity—Spadina (20), because honestly, no list would be complete without them. The NDP's direction in polls and local personalities will be so crucial in both of these seats, and at this point it's just too early to write either of them off. In a perfect world, Trinity—Spadina should be one of the party's best bets for a pickup in Ontario, but Chow has not been nominated yet, and rumours persist that Tony Ianno will bow out to a big name star recruit (Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae). In Van Centre, Svend Robinson's presumed entry into the race could cut either way: he could become a media black hole, stucking the oxygen out of other campaigns across the country, and damaging NDP prospects with soft Liberal voters; or he could prove the only candidate capable of finally persuading the GBLT community to depose Queen Hedy. Time will tell.
