From The Hill Times:

. . . even some people close to the campaign admit that Revenue Minister Stan Keyes' riding "is gone to the NDP." Even the powerful electoral machine of Transportation Minister Tony Valeri has been working overtime to retain the lead. This is almost the same area where the provincial Liberals lost to the NDP in a recent provincial byelection.

Christopherson is increasingly looking like a lock, and DePaulo could ride some substantial coattails. Could all five Hamilton-area Liberal seats be lost to the NDP and Cons?

Bill Siksay won the NDP nomination in Burnaby-Douglas. I would still bet the farm on the NDP holding this seat; Bill Cunningham, the Martinite appointee, if by all accounts a lightweight, and though the Con candidate George Drazenovic seems more impressive, I can't see this riding going to orange to blue in one election. Interesting to note that the NDP's standard will be carried in three top-tier side-by-side Vancouver ridings (Burnaby-Douglas, Van-Kingsway, and Van-East) by queer candidates, surely a testament to the sea change in public attitudes for which Siksay's predecessor deserves much credit.

Also noteworthy: CUPE honcho Sid Ryan has won the nomination in Oshawa, a riding represented by eminence grise Ed Broadbent for decades. Ryan gets a spot on the hopeful list, but just barely. One to watch.

SURE-THINGS

Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh)
Brian Masse (Windsor West)
Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
Libby Davies (Vancouver East)
Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle)
Dick Proctor (Palliser)
Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona)
Bev Desjarlais (Churchill)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre)
Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre)
Alexa McDonough (Halifax)
Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore)
Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst)

LEAN-TO

Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
John Rafferty (Thunder Bay-Rainy River)
Rui Pires (Davenport)
David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
Susan Barclay (Kenora)
Charley King (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam)
Scott Fraser (Nanaimo-Alberni)
Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North)
Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley)
Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands)
Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
Lorene Mahoney (Kildonan-St. Paul)
Duane Nicol (Selkirk-Interlake)
Earl Cook (Churchill Falls)
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
Pam Boyde (Yukon)

HOPEFUL

Irene Mathyssen (London Fanshawe)
Monia Mazigh (Ottawa South)
Claude Gravelle (Nickel Belt)
Charlie Angus (Timmins-James Bay)
Tony DePaulo (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek)
Bruce Hyer (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
David Turner (Victoria)
Steve McClurg (New Westminster-Coquitlam)
Bill Carr (Halifax West)

Now that Olivia is a declared candidate in T-S, I don’t feel sheepish about having her at the top of the list. Burnaby-Douglas should be on this list as well, except since Svend's abrupt retirement, there's no candidate. Burnaby councillor Pietro Calendino has thrown his hat in, as has veteran Svend aide-de-camp Bill Siksay; Calendino is the frontrunner for now.

Have downgraded some of the sure-things into the favoured column, more for the purpose of reflecting sobriety than anything else. So the current (adjusted) count is: 21 sure-things (+ Burnaby-Douglas), 18 lean-tos, and 9 hopefuls: 49 in total.

Andrea Horwath's convincing win in the Hamilton East byelection makes federal New Dem Tony DePaulo look like a better bet against Martin hatchet-man Tony Valeri. Scratch Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in at the bottom of the hopefuls column.