FINAL SEAT PROJECTION

Based on the Fri. Ipsos national and West Coast poll numbers, I am projecting 30 seats for the NDP on June 28th. That's a few more than LISPOP and Milton Chan's gang, and a few less than the party faithful over on babble. Here's where those wins will be (* indicates incumbents and open seats we won in 2000):

ONTARIO
1. Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
2. Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
3. Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh*)
4. Brian Masse (Windsor West*)
5. Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
6. David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
7. Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
8. Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
9. Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
10. Susan Barclay (Kenora)

BC
11. Libby Davies (Vancouver East*)
12. Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
13. Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
14. Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
15. Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
16. Bill Siksay (Burnaby-Douglas*)
17. Kennedy Stewart (Vancouver Centre)
18. Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley)

PRAIRIES/NORTH
19. Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle*)
20. Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
21. Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
22. Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona*)
23. Bev Desjarlais (Churchill*)
24. Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre*)
25. Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre*)
26. Dick Proctor (Palliser*)

ATLANTIC
27. Alexa McDonough (Halifax*)
28. Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore*)
29. Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst*)
30. Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour*)

If any other New Democrat in Canada wins on Monday night, it will be one of these folks: Tony DePaulo (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek), Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands), Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon-Humboldt), Earl Cook (Churchill Falls), Bill Carr (Halifax West), Charlie Angus (Timmins-James Bay), Michael Shapcott (Toronto-Centre), or David Turner (Victoria). And we still might be surprised by Pam Boyde (Yukon) or Dennis Bevington (Western Arctic). But I think 30 is the magic number, and if the Liberals can take 115, that's enough to make everyone but Harper happy come Tuesday morning.

Here are the three main assumptions I'm making, with one day left before my final projection:

(a) The vote in BC is going to be enormous, somewhere around 30% (back to its historic level), and that vote is going to be distributed efficiently in the GVRD, Vancouver Island, and--knock on wood--Skeena.

(b) In Ontario, we will take 20%. Again, distributed relatively efficiently around the GTA, Windsor, Hamilton, Ottawa, and the northern ridings.

(c) We will defend all our incumbents, including Proctor and Masse, and hold the vacant seats we won in 2000.

Which leads us to this, next-to-final prediction (* marks an incumbent or open seat we held):

ONTARIO
1. Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
2. Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
3. Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh*)
4. Brian Masse (Windsor West*)
5. Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
6. David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
7. Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
8. Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
9. Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
10. Susan Barclay (Kenora)

BC
11. Libby Davies (Vancouver East*)
12. Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
13. Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
14. Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
15. Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
16. Bill Siksay (Burnaby-Douglas*)
17. Kennedy Stewart (Vancouver Centre),

PRAIRIES/NORTH
18. Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle*)
19. Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
20. Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
21. Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona*)
22. Bev Desjarlais (Churchill*)
23. Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre*)
24. Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre*)
25. Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
26. Dick Proctor (Palliser*)

ATLANTIC
27. Alexa McDonough (Halifax*)
28. Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore*)
29. Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst*)
30. Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour*)

Again, I remain hopeful about DePaulo, Burgis, Cook, and Carr; about Nathan Cullen in northern BC, and the two seats in the territories (Western Arctic and Yukon) where we might have a crack. Also don't want to discount Charlie Angus in Timmins-James Bay, Michael Shapcott in Toronto-Centre, and David Turner in Victoria. We'll see tomorrow.

Big new numbers from Environics. NDP at 18% nationally (up 9 points from 2000), but here are the fun figures:

Ontario: Lib 40 (-12), Con 35 (-3), NDP 19 (+11), Other 5 (+3)
BC: Lib 31 (+4), Con 34 (-22), NDP 31 (+20), Other 4 (-)

Oh, sweet, sweet British Columbia; TND's homeland, and soon to be the one province sending a gigantic whack of progressive New Democrats to Ottawa. LISPOP got it wrong: The Prairies numbers (17-18%) are disappointing, while the West Coast and Ontario are going to deliver handsomely. This poll has a big sample size and it's going to leave a spring in my step for much of the workday. June 28th is going to be a long, long night.

Still mulling this over, but here's how the (tentative) final projections list is shaping up (* marks an incumbent or open seat we held):

ONTARIO
1. Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
2. Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
3. Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh*)
4. Brian Masse (Windsor West*)
5. Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
6. David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
7. Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
8. Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
9. Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)

BC
10. Libby Davies (Vancouver East*)
11. Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
12. Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
13. Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
14. Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
15. Bill Siksay (Burnaby-Douglas*)

PRAIRIES/NORTH
16. Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle*)
17. Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
18. Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
19. Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona*)
20. Bev Desjarlais (Churchill*)
21. Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre*)
22. Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre*)
23. Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
24. Dick Proctor (Palliser*)
25. Pam Boyde (Yukon)

ATLANTIC
26. Alexa McDonough (Halifax*)
27. Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore*)
28. Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst*)
29. Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour*)

Nos. 8, 9, 12, 23-25, and 29 could fall off depending on how things go this week. Three candidates are definitely on the backburner for this list: Kennedy Stewart (Vancouver Centre), Susan Barclay (Kenora), and Tony DePaulo (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek). I continue to hold out hope for Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands), Earl Cook (Churchill Falls), and Bill Carr (Halifax West), and expect we might be shocked on the 28th by Dennis Bevington (Western Arctic) and Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley). Should have the final count by Friday.

One more for the road before I pack it in. Bourque says:

SES: Lib 34% Con 31% Ndp 21% Bloc 12% Green 3% ...
Environics: Lib 33% Con 33% Ndp 18% Bloc 11% ...

Sweet dreams!

LISPOP is now projecting 26 seats for the NDP, down from 27. Their system is based on a blending of five national polls (from Leger, Ipsos, and EKOS) taken in mid-June. More recent polls seem to be reflecting a Liberal bounceback, but LISPOP projects Con 117, Lib 105, BQ 60.

The projected NDP regional breakdown:

Canada: 26
Atlantic: 3
Quebec: 0
Ontario: 9
Man./Sask./North: 9
BC: 5

This seems to be a conservative, but probably prudent, projection. Unless Bill Carr scores his ballyhooed upset against Regan in Halifax West, riding a wave of voter anger that refuses to turn Con, 3 in the Atlantic will be the max we can win. Also distinctly possible that 9 is our ceiling in both Ontario and the Prairies. But 5 for BC? Retaining the two GVRD seats and adding Nanaimo-Cowichan and Van-Kingsway now seems all but certain; Burnaby-New West, Van Centre, and Nanaimo-Alberni should also be good bets. I'm hoping for 9 in BC to take us to the magic number 30 overall . . .

Well, if anything represents an instructive finger-shaking about the value of polls, it's the fact that The Post is headlining today with an article about how Harper's lead his increased, while a 6-point Liberal surge is splashed across the front of The Globe. The Globe's Ipsos poll makes more some interesting reading (and has some encouraging news about the NDP's ongoing strength in Ontario), but the sample sizes in the Atlantic and the Prairies are too small to be worth much.

Also: Yesterday, NDP high command in on the Left Coast had this to say . . .

NDP POISED TO DEFEAT LIBERALS IN KEY SEATS

Internal polling shows Party is in tight race with Conservatives around the province

BURNABY - Internal polling recently completed by the NDP shows the Party is about to pick off several high-profile Liberal candidates in BC— including members of the so-called Liberal 'dream team.'

"According to the numbers so far, the NDP has a clear lead in the campaigns in Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Kingsway and Burnaby-Douglas," said BC campaign manager Gerry Scott. "That means Hedy Fry, Bill Cunningham and David Emerson are in danger of losing those seats."

The polling, fielded June 16-19, shows the Conservatives trailing the NDP in three of the four seats polled. The results also show that the NDP is in a statistical dead heat with the Conservatives in the riding of Nanaimo-Cowichan, where the Reform/Alliance parties have reigned since 1993.

In the four taken together, the NDP holds a strong lead, with 44.1% of public support, followed by the Conservatives at 26.6%, the Liberals trailing with 20.8%, and the Greens at 8.3%. In the individual ridings the races shape up as follows:

Vancouver-Kingsway:

Ian Waddell (NDP) 53.9%
Jesse Johl (Con) 19.8%
David Emerson (Lib) 17.0%
Tracey Mann (GN) 8.6%

Vancouver-Centre:

Kennedy Stewart (NDP) 46.9%
Hedy Fry (Lib) 30.6%
Gary Mitchell (Con) 17.7%
Rob Mattu (GN) 4.1%

Burnaby-Douglas:

Bill Siksay (NDP) 43.2%
George Drazenovic (Con) 30.6%
Bill Cunningham (Lib) 16.2%
Shawn Hunsdale (GN) 10.0%

Nanaimo-Cowichan:

David Quist (Con) 37.4%
Jean Crowder (NDP) 33.8%
Lloyd McLlquham (Lib) 16.8%
Harold Henn (GN) 10.1%

Stratcom called the results of Andrea Horwath's blowout win in the Hamilton East byelection, almost to the decimal point, so I'm willing to give this some credence. It's disappointing to see Crowder behind, and even harder to believe Emerson is running third in Van-Kingsway, but this presents one more reason to believe Kennedy Stewart might be the next MP for Vancouver Centre.

Mustel Group put out a new BC poll that is full of final-week blessings. It's a 721 sample size and with 3.6% MOE.

BC:

Con: 36
NDP: 28
Lib: 26
Green: 7
Other: 3

City of Vancouver:

Con: 18
NDP: 37
Lib: 39
Green: 6
Other: 0

GVRD:

Con: 43
NDP: 23
Lib: 25
Green: 5
Other: 4

Other BC:

Con: 37
NDP: 29
Lib: 23
Green: 10
Other: 2

A few notes:

1. The "City" numbers indicate Van Centre could be in play. If Stewart is, indeed, only two points behind Queen Hedy, this one is too close to call until the 28th. (FYI: Bif Naked and Jim Deva both came out for Stewart, decent endorsements for someone who may now have a shot.)

2. Election 2000: 49.4% Alliance, 27.7% Liberal, 11.3% NDP, 7.3% PC, 4.3% Other (including Green). This poll: Con -13 from 2000, NDP +17, Lib -2, Green +2-3. Q: Where did all those new NDP votes come from? A: The old Alliance vote, and especially the old Red Tories.

3. The "rest of BC" numbers are encouraging, since the Cons waste their votes in the Fraser Valley Bible Belt and the Okanagan, while the NDP vote is concentrated on Vancouver Island and around Skeena, Prince George, and the Kootenays. Consistently modest margins of victory could deliver plenty of seats in those areas to NDP candidates.

4. This and other polls point to the fact that the Green vote in BC is going down, not up. True, the NDP has lost some of its environmentalist vote (read the platforms, goddamnit!), but I think a sizeable chunk of the Green vote would not be voting for Layton anyway. Could make the difference in Saanich-Gulf Islands, but nowhere else.

The world according to Bourque:

SES: Lib 34 % Con 29 % Ndp 22 % Bloc 10 % Green 5 % ...
Compas: Lib 35 % Con 34 % Ndp 17 % Bloc 11 % ...

Over at LISPOP, the hacks are predicting 27 seats for the NDP. If support remains flat, I'll be projecting somewhere in this range. Count on the 23 rock-solid sure-things, plus the two seats we already hold (Proctor and MacAlpine-Gillis), and some combination of Nash, Martin, Garrison, Barclay, or Burgis.

Babblers have posted an internal poll from Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca showing the NDP's Randall Garrison significantly ahead of Alliance-turned-Liberal incumbent Keith Martin. Recent riding-specific polls (COMPAS on Van South and Surrey North, Victoria, and this one) show that in each seat the NDP vote is about 15-20% higher than in 2000. Garrison should now be considered the favourite, and this could have an impact soon on Turner (Victoria), King (PoCo), and Burgis (Saanich) if the numbers seem to hold.

Also: There's been a lot of brouhaha lately about this guy. Now, the chances of Dr Guyatt overcoming the Con surge in Hamilton is unlikely, but activists on the ground in ADFW and not a small number of journos have expressed the opinion that this one could be close. Longshot? Hopeful? MPs Christopherson, DePaulo . . . and Guyatt? Let's see some more Ontario polls.

Pre-debate roundup:

Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh)
Brian Masse (Windsor West)
Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
Libby Davies (Vancouver East)
Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
Scott Fraser (Nanaimo-Alberni)
Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
Bill Siksay (Burnaby-Douglas)
Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle)
Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona)
Bev Desjarlais (Churchill)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre)
Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre)
Alexa McDonough (Halifax)
Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore)
Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst)

LEAN-TO

Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
John Rafferty (Thunder Bay-Rainy River)
Rui Pires (Davenport)
Tony DePaulo (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek)
Susan Barclay (Kenora)
Michael Shapcott (Toronto Centre)
Charley King (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam)
Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands)
Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
Dick Proctor (Palliser)
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
Pam Boyde (Yukon)

HOPEFUL

Claude Gravelle (Nickel Belt)
Charlie Angus (Timmins-James Bay)
Sid Ryan (Oshawa)
Bruce Hyer (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
David Turner (Victoria)
Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North)
Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley)
Steve McClurg (New Westminster-Coquitlam)
Lorene Mahoney (Kildonan-St. Paul)
Duane Nicol (Selkirk-Interlake)
Earl Cook (Churchill Falls)

LONGSHOT

Irene Mathyssen (London Fanshawe)
Monia Mazigh (Ottawa South)
Bill Carr (Halifax West)
Des McGrath (Random-Burin-St.George's)
Dennis Bevington (Western Arctic)

Switched Nash and Tabuns, because it seems to make sense now; Scott Fraser zooms up to the top, powered by Ipsos’ BC Booster (see yesterday’s post). Current tally: 23-14-11-5. (Self-reinforcing note: The Ipsos seat projection published Thursday had the New Dems at 21-26.)

Big, handsome new BC poll out from Ipsos, right here. Highlights: (1) NDP at 27%, up 16 points from 2000; (2) NDP at 32%, only 6 points behind the Liberals, in the Northwest sector of the Lower Mainland (Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster and North Shore); NDP at 26%, behind Cons (30%) but ahead of Libs (22%) on Vancouver Island; and NDP 10 points behind the Cons in the Interior. (This poll also reinforces the national gender gap noted by other firms, with the NDP at 30%-23% female/male.)

Waddell is in a tougher fight than expected with Emerson in Van-Kingsway, but Davies and Siksay should be safe, and Peter Julian is a near-lock on Burnaby-New West. Nanaimo-Cowichan should be considered unwinnable for the other parties, and Nanaimo-Alberni is probably on the verge of sure-thing status. Look for potential surprises in Van-Centre, Victoria, and Skeena-BV.

Prediction: Ipsos projects 4-6, but I think that's overly pessimistic. Six should be considered the bottom-end prediction, and it would not make me feel sheepish to say the New Democrats could take 9-10 in BC on the 28th. Stay tuned.

More and more good news today in the national polls, and two surprises to report on the riding-by-riding count:

1. A leaked internal poll has NDP candidate Michael Shapcott leading Bill Graham in Toronto-Centre. Astonishingly, Shapcott never made it onto my list, because I assumed Graham was unbeatable. Stick him on the "lean-to" list for now, since my instict is to say this riding could be split 30-30-30.

2. COMPAS is reporting that Dick Proctor is within the statistical MOE of losing Palliser. This would be a real blow, and let's hope he pulls off a heroic save; but for the time being, downgrade Dick to "lean-to."

SURE-THINGS

Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina)
Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth)
Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh)
Brian Masse (Windsor West)
Ed Broadbent (Ottawa Centre)
David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park)
Libby Davies (Vancouver East)
Jean Crowder (Naniamo-Cowichan)
Ian Waddell (Vancouver Kingsway)
Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster)
Bill Siksay (Burnaby-Douglas)
Lorne Nystrom (Regina-Qu’Appelle)
Dick Proctor (Palliser)
Denis Gruending (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
Moe Kovatch (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre)
Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona)
Bev Desjarlais (Churchill)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis (Winnipeg North Centre)
Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre)
Alexa McDonough (Halifax)
Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore)
Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst)

LEAN-TO

Peter Tabuns (Beaches-East York)
Tony Martin (Sault Ste-Marie)
John Rafferty (Thunder Bay-Rainy River)
Rui Pires (Davenport)
Tony DePaulo (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek)
Susan Barclay (Kenora)
Charley King (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam)
Scott Fraser (Nanaimo-Alberni)
Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
Jennifer Burgis (Saanich-Gulf Islands)
Nettie Wiebe (Saskatoon Humboldt)
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
Pam Boyde (Yukon)

HOPEFUL

Claude Gravelle (Nickel Belt)
Charlie Angus (Timmins-James Bay)
Sid Ryan (Oshawa)
Bruce Hyer (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
David Turner (Victoria)
Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North)
Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley)
Steve McClurg (New Westminster-Coquitlam)
Lorene Mahoney (Kildonan-St. Paul)
Duane Nicol (Selkirk-Interlake)
Earl Cook (Churchill Falls)

LONGSHOT

Irene Mathyssen (London Fanshawe)
Monia Mazigh (Ottawa South)
Bill Carr (Halifax West)
Des McGrath (Random-Burin-St.George's)
Dennis Bevington (Western Arctic)

Christopherson and DePaulo both bumped up due to rising numbers in Ontario, and positive reports on the ground in Hamilton; Bell, Cullen, Mahoney, Nichol, and Cook down to hopefuls. Carr, Mathyssen, and Mazigh down to longshots, but there in the august company of newly minted Newfie star candidate Father McGrath, and Dennis Bevington in NWT. Makes for: 23 sure-things, 13 lean-tos, 11 hopefuls, and 5 longshots. Expect improvements after Jack kicks ass in the debates.

(Cue Ode to Joy here)

Two from SES/CPAC: the 3-day rolling poll shows the Liberals at 36%, Conservatives at 25%, the NDP at 22% (the highest I've seen the NDP in any publicly released Canadian voter intention survey in, oh, quite a long time), and the Bloc at 13%, which roughly works out to an ass-kicking 50% in Quebec. The Greens are holding at 5% nationwide.

SES also has put together a 5-day cumulative poll with a regional breakdown. Notable: BC is as tight as a {insert corny, shopworn, or crude expression here), with all three parties within five points of each other in a subsample with a 9 percent margin of error. Liberals way down in Ontario to 39%, Conservatives at 32% (nearly a statistical tie), with the NDP up nine points to 25%.

From The Vancouver Scrum. NDP at 29% in BC and 25% in Ontario = every single candidate on the sure-thing list and a heavy batch of lean-tos facing whichever government shows up in the next House of Commons.

The Ipsos poll out today with the NDP at 21% in Ontario reinforces yesterday's post: Both Windsor seats, plus Jack, Olivia, Ed, Dave Christopherson, and one of Tabuns/Nash should be considered unbeatable on the 28th. The Liberal Maginot Line in TO is collapsing, with Jack bringing home the party's core vote. Plus, with the Cons over 30%, Graham and Jean Augustine are in trouble.

For my own amusement, I'm going to add a "wild card" to my predictions list. Check out the 2000 results in Western Arctic:

1. Ethel Blondin-Andrew (Liberal) 5,855 45.59%
2. Dennis Bevington (NDP) 3,430 26.71%
3. Fred Turner (Alliance) 2,273 17.70%
4. Bruce McLaughlin (PC) 1,282 9.98%

The combined Tory/Alliance vote was roughly equal to Bevington's quarter of the overall total. Bevington is again the NDP candidate, running against a weak Liberal incumbent. While I expect to see Pam Boyde take Yukon before this riding goes orange, Bevington (who, shockingly, bears a striking resemblance to Martin blowfish Tony Valeri) is my wild card pick for the time being.