In hot pursuit of that last post, the print version of La Presse has a regional breakdown for BC:

NDP 33%
LPC 33%
CPC 24%
GPC 10%

TND quietly mutters "bullshit" in regards to that 10% for the Greens (vote-parkers, come home! all is forgiven!), and heads back to Babble for some well-deserved gloating. Tied with the Grits in TND's home province? Should this kind of support remain more or less static, not only would Nathan Cullen coast to victory, but great swaths of the GVRD and Vancouver Island would be painted a charming shade of orange. Jack Layton, MP, Leader of the Official Opposition?

Check this out: The Toronto Star commissioned an Ekos poll that shows the NDP with 21% of voter support, up nearly 6% from our share of the vote in 2004. It's a big sample size, and thus hard to dismiss as an outlier; still, the more interesting numbers are here:

About 68 per cent of respondents who voted Liberal in the last election said they intend to vote the same way next time, and 87 per cent of Tory voters from 2004 said they would stick with their party.

Thirteen per cent who voted for the Liberals last time said they would now vote for the NDP. About five per cent of Conservative voters said they would switch to the New Democrats.

TND barely made it through Math 10, so take this with a grain of salt, but punching these figures into the UBC Election Stock Market voter migration matrix resulted in the NDP taking 52 seats (and Liberals only 69). Dear readers, with numbers like that we would take Welland.

Hold your breath: Things are about to get interesting.

REVISED TOP 20 PICK-UPS

TND is not going out on a limb in predicting that BC is the province where the NDP's fortunes shall be made or broken in the 2006 post-Gomery election. National polls show the Cons tanking, consistently trailing the Grits by 10 points, and bringing Harper & Co. into the perilous territory of a 20-seat loss. Ipsos and Mustel both put out polls on Oct. 3rd showing the Cons stalled at 23% in the West beyond the West; Mustel had the Liberals leading the NDP in BC by a wider margin than Ipsos, but the basic message here is that those ridings where the New Democrat's main challenger is a Liberal (Vancouver Centre, Victoria) may be out of reach, while those where the principal rival is a Con (Surrey North, Van Island North, BC Southern Interior) are in play.

The NDP is stuck at 17% nationally, so at least the core vote from the Broadbent years has come home, and if that level of support stays steady, it should translate into 5-8 more seats. Soaring Liberal strength in Ontario means that, while Layton and Christopherson and the two Windsor MPs are safe, Charlie Angus is in trouble and Ottawa—Centre is all but lost. In BC, as elsewhere, voters in the centre are parking their support with the Liberals. How much of that between-elections, Rob Thomas-light Liberal support melts away--and to whom--will determine whether the NDP picks up 2 seats or a dozen.

If Election Day were tomorrow, TND says the NDP would take 25 seats. But where? Here's the rundown:

Western Arctic (1) went to Liberal seat-warmer Ethel-Blondin Andrew by an embarrassing margin of 53 votes in ’04. Not only is New Democrat Dennis Bevington, her main challenger in that contest, running again, but the nomination of aboriginal politico Richard Edjercon by the Cons should split the First Nations vote right down the middle. TND predicts: This one turns orange even if we lose incumbents in the next election.

Further south, the death of indie MP Chuck Cadman created, hands down, the best NDP pickup opportunity in BC. A June 2004 Compas study showed that, in a hypothetical race with generic candidates, 37% of Surrey North (2) residents would go NDP, with a no-name Grit and Con taking about 25% each. Last time, Jim Karpoff was the NDP pick: he held the seat from 1988-93 and trebled the party’s 2000 vote. In May, the NDP scorched Liberal incumbents across this urban riding, where more than 36% of the population is new Canadian and one of the biggest South Asian communities in the country makes its home. The Cons are running Dave Matta, an Indo-Canadian, while the Liberals could tap Dan Sheal, James Miller, or Dave Hayer. After she declined to run for re-election with the new Surrey Civic Coalition, councillor and ex-provincial cabmin Penny Priddy became the subject of much New Dem excitement in the blogosphere, her candidacy all but assured. And while the much-balloyhooed independent candidacies of Cadman widow Dona and daughter Jody did not materialize, there will be a law-and-order indie running in Surrey North: Nina Rivet, whose sister was killed in an infamous street racing incident.

A mere 0.3% of the vote separated NDP candidate Steve McClurg from victory over Con MP Paul Forseth in New Westminster—Coquitlam (3) last year. Next year, Forseth will defend himself against a woman he beat twice, but who now looks far more formidable considering the revival of NDP support in BC: one-time MP Dawn Black. With unionista backstabber Dave Haggard likely to run for the Liberals in Fleetwood-Port Kells this time, rumour has it the Grits have a big-name local candidate lined up. Mind you, it could just as easily be Joyce Murray.

Like the aforementioned riding, many of TND's top bets are seats where the NDP came close in 2004, and—given the apparent solidity of its 3% improvement on the popular vote that year—should now be considered likely pick-ups. Seats like Palliser (4), which Con backbencher Dave Batters won by 124 votes. Dick Proctor lost it, Joanne Dusel will take it back. Or Vancouver Island North (5), where cook and BCGEU veep Catherine Bell has been nominated to unseat Con MP John Duncan, who beat her by 483 votes in '04. Or Hamilton Mountain (6), where the fifth time's the charm for New Dem Chris Charlton, facing city councillor Bill Kelly (Lib) and notably unnotable Don Graves (Con) for an open seat vacated by Grit Beth Phinney. Or BC Southern Interior (7): Here, 60-year-old retired schoolteacher and New Democrat Alex Atamanenko is running again, but the Con MP he lost to last year by only 680 votes is not. With Jim Gouk out, the Cons are fielding parachute candidate Derek Zeisman. The provincial NDP vote in the eastern end—Nelson, Castlegar, Rossland, and Trail—was well over 60%.

Same holds true for Regina—Qu’Appelle (8). Con anklebiter Andrew Scheer is simply too young to have had many grown-up jobs. He sold insurance for a while, and once filed mail for the Office of the Official Opposition Leader. His current gig, as MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle, is just as tenuous. Lorne is back, Andrew Scheer, and you are sitting in his chair.

In Newton—North Delta (9), ’06 just might be a re-match of ’04, with all the main candidates running again: Secret Agent Grewal has announced he will seek the Con nod; Sukh Dhaliwal is the favourite to represent the Grits; and Kwantlen economics prof Nancy Clegg will be wearing her NDP hat. New Democrats Harry Bains and Guy Gentner won the concurrent provincial ridings in May, so unless the Cons give Gurmant the boot, only Dhaliwal stands in the way of a high-profile pick-up.

London Mayor Anne Marie DeCicco shot down a point-blank come-on from the fed Lib riding association in London—Fanshawe (10), which is casting about with increasing desperation for someone to run against the NDP's Irene Mathyssen. DeCicco saw the writing on the wall. If Liberal defector Pat O'Brien runs as an Independent, he will take some of his old supporters with him, weakening both the Liberal and the Con candidate, attorney Dan Mailer. Rae-era cabmin Mathyssen took 30% to O’Brien’s 38% in '04, and she has been all over this riding in the past year. Mathyssen consistently polls 10-15% ahead of her party, but all she needs is for O'Brien's vote to split down the middle and hers to hold.

In Kenora (11), United Church minister Susan Barclay is the New Democrat, Bill Brown is the Con, and MP Roger Valley is the Liberal. In '04, Valley won with 1000 votes over Barclay, who won 1000 votes more than the Cons. Provincially, PCs used to win here routinely, but Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton has sewn up contemporary Kenora. If Jack's prediction of gains in northern Ontario comes true on election night, it will start here.

Though not traditionally NDP-leaning, Oshawa (12) came close to sending labour leader Sid Ryan to Ottawa last year, and it presents all the opportunities and risks of a classic 3-way split. If he runs again, Ryan stands to benefit from soft Liberals and Red Tories moving to his corner.

Right now, the Liberal numbers in BC would suggest that David Mulroney (no relation) is a shoe-in for David Anderon's old Victoria (13) seat. But Liberal numbers in BC have a habit of going south once a writ is dropped, and Grit David v. 2.0 is as lacklustre as Grit David v. 1.0 was middling. Complicating matters further is the nomination of silver-tongued, Sorbonne-educated Robin Baird by the Cons, and popular left-leaning municipal pol Denise Savoie by the New Democrats. Savoie should at least improve on the '04 vote, and Baird just might lure enough centre-right voters into his column to deny Mulroney the win.

University prof and ex-farmers union honcho Nettie Wiebe ran and lost in adjacent Saskatoon—Humboldt in '04, but this year will carry the party's standard in Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar (14), a frankly more attractive prospect. This sets up a battle royale between Wiebe and Con incumbent Carol Skelton, one of her party’s few high-profile female MPs. Last year, the NDP took 36% and the Liberals 14%, while Skelton carried it off with 44%. If Wiebe focuses on the rural precincts, she can carry SRB back to where it was in '97.

The same dynamic of Liberal strength and Con bottoming-out that is driving seats like Victoria and Van Centre down the rankings has buoyed Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission (15), at the edge of the GVRD. Journalist Mike Bocking is leading the orange charge against fundie MP Randy Kamp. Kamp's margin of victory was 5.8% last time, but the Liberals are not a factor, so declining Con numbers bode well for the New Dems. Voters in Maple Ridge were reminded in May how much they liked to cast ballots for the NDP, and hopefully that sensation will resonate at the federal ballot box. TND taps this as one to watch, and a potential echo of Nathan Cullen's upset in Skeena—Bulkley Valley last time around. Like Skeena, Nickel Belt (16) could be swayed by the NDP's northern appeal: New Democrat Claude Gravelle will face Lib incumbent Ray Bonin in a repeat of their '04 contest. Con Margaret Schwartzentruber will not be a factor.

Nina is a major liability for the Cons in Fleetwood—Port Kells (17), despite recent efforts to rehabilitate her public image and slip the surly bounds of Grewal-ness. Touted for the Liberal nomination: provincial cabmin lemmings Gulzar Cheema and Brenda Locke, and union boss Dave Haggard, who is jumping over from New Westminister—Coquitlam, where he ran in ’04. Possible New Democrats include mental health activist John Russell, warhorse Barry Bell, and councillor Judy Villeneuve. Woefully under-qualified, an object of scorn and derision in the media, Nina will soon be joining her husband at home.

For Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre (18), it's Mo Kovatch again on the NDP side. The Cons won here in 2004 in a very close 3-way race. At that time, the Calvert government had just introduced a tough budget that hurt New Democrats badly in several federal races. Now the province is flush, and the NDP will be the only viable alternative to Tom Lukiwski.

After Van Island North and Victoria, the voter migration matrix favours Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca as the best NDP hope for a pick-up on rock-ribbed prog Vancouver Island. Saanich—Gulf Island also has its boosters. In TND's humble opinion, the big target should be Nanaimo—Alberni (19), with its old-school NDP union vote and the CCF fortress of Port Alberni. The '05 candidate, Scott Fraser, won a provincial approximation of this riding in May, and the riding association has yet to nominate a successor. But a strong candidate would have a better-than-decent shot at taking out James Lunney in this riding where surging Liberal numbers provincially will have less impact.

Tied for last place, TND has Vancouver Centre and Trinity—Spadina (20), because honestly, no list would be complete without them. The NDP's direction in polls and local personalities will be so crucial in both of these seats, and at this point it's just too early to write either of them off. In a perfect world, Trinity—Spadina should be one of the party's best bets for a pickup in Ontario, but Chow has not been nominated yet, and rumours persist that Tony Ianno will bow out to a big name star recruit (Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae). In Van Centre, Svend Robinson's presumed entry into the race could cut either way: he could become a media black hole, stucking the oxygen out of other campaigns across the country, and damaging NDP prospects with soft Liberal voters; or he could prove the only candidate capable of finally persuading the GBLT community to depose Queen Hedy. Time will tell.

Gurmant is running again! Yes, despite a spate of public embarrassments, Canada's favourite freelance espionage operative will beg the electors of Newton-North Delta for a second chance. With comely engineering-type Sukh Dhaliwal back again as the Liberal contender, this is starting to look like a good spot for that rarest of political lightning strikes: a Grit pick-up in BC. 2004 NDP candidate Nancy Clegg is articulate and passionate, but TND has its doubts about her viability as a Gurmant-toppler.

In wonk math news, Angus Reid shows Team Martin way out in front:

Liberals: 39%
Conservatives: 24%
NDP: 19%
BQ: 14%

No breakdowns for BC, but the Ontario numbers are smashing for the Grits, and the BQ still owns a 20-point lead in Quebec. Taking into account the general trendlines of other polls, smart money would guess the Libs are 8-10 in front of Harper & Co. cross-country. Mind you, the Tories always look weaker between elections--though nowhere near as weak as they do, say, halfway through a national campaign . . .

Après moi, le Deluge? Nina Grewal reportedly offered to assume responsibility for representing the constituents of Surrey North after indie MP Chuck Cadman's death last week, which begs the question: Have the good citizens of Surrey not suffered enough? Could they be made to endure a more absurd ordeal than that, a veritable political version of Fear Factor? Saner heads, it seems, have prevailed, and Cadman's henchthingies have said they will continue to serve the riding's constituents, sans MP. No word on how Gurmant is telling Nina to feel about that.

Various papers contend that Cadman's widow, Dona, is considering a run for his seat. According to UVic yakademic Norman Ruff: "Typically, byelections involving a former MP's widow run very well . . . There's so much cynicism about politicians, Cadman is an exception." TND is understandably reassured by the thought that voters will overcome widespread cynicism by electing a Member of Parliament whose sole qualification is a last name that starts with "C" and ends with "-adman." At least Norm added this charming afterthought: the NDP is "well-positioned to retake the riding."

Hard to say if Dona will run as an Ind., or seek the nomination of the party that booted her hubby back in '04. A DonaCon candidacy would sadly deprive us of the funpark spectacle that was Jasbir Singh Cheema, whose claim to fame was having signed up 140% of the riding's population as card-carrying Cons in his gallant bid to oust Chuck, then losing spectacularly when none of those voters turned up at the federal polls. With any luck, the Liberals will do their best to carry the standard for muck-generating by running some no-name hack with unlimited mass-registration potential.

Of course, the Grits could run Guru Nanak himself in Surrey North and not have a hope in hell of winning this seat. Which is why TND humbly offers its advice to PMPM and his merry (though ever-diminishing) band of Earnscliffe flunkies: Call this byelection tomorrow, find a candidate sub-standard even by Surrey Liberal sub-standards, keep him wrapped-up in an Ikea box under the Pattullo Bridge until election day, and let the NDP carry it off. One more New Democrat in the Commons will make Martin just a bit safer, and surely that feat is worth the $250 000 pricetag?

This just in . . . Stick a fork in Jim Gouk. The Con MP for Southern Interior reportedly announced on CBC Radio that he would not run in the next election, so as to "spend more time with his family" (trans.: "avoid a soul-crushing, Alan Keyes-magnitude defeat at the polls"). TND is rarely one to crow, but this one's in the bag, kids.

Two encouraging news items to start the week off right:

Denise Savoie won the NDP federal nomination in Victoria this weekend. Savoie is a popular Victoria councillor who was endorsed in the race by rookie MLAs Rob Fleming, David Cubberly, and Maurine Karagianis; she beat last year's candidate, uninspiring ex-mayor David Turner, on the first ballot. This is an open seat where the NDP stands a great chance of winning—and an even greater chance now that Savoie's name will be on the ballot.

Then there's this article in The Hill Times, which seems to suggest Comuzzi's on his way out. TND ranked Comuzzi's riding, Thunder Bay—Superior North, at the very bottom of the top 30 pickups list, but this news could change that. If Comuzzi packs it in due to C-38 (and good riddance to him on that account), the NDP's Bruce Hyer has a much clearer shot at bagging the seat. One to watch.

WHAT ABOUT SURREY NORTH?

The wild card for the NDP may be Surrey North. Chuck Cadman won almost double the number of votes claimed by his NDP rival in 2004. He’s practically a folk hero in the riding: a Mustel Group poll conducted in April ‘05 showed him with 45% to 26% for the NDP, 20% for the Liberals, and 6% for the Cons. A Compas poll released a month later had Cadman 43%, NDP 24%, Liberals 22%, Cons 10%. Cadman had a blinding, Obama-like 75% positive performance score, the highest score ever achieved by a politician in a Compas survey.

But Chuck is also sick with cancer, and it’s been rumoured that he’s too ill to attend upcoming votes in the Commons. That he will run again cannot be taken as a foregone conclusion. If Cadman retires, Surrey North automatically leap-frogs into the ranks of the NDP’s top potential pickups. Jim Karpoff, who represented the riding from 1988-93, ran against Cadman in ’04 and grabbed 24.1% of the votes—more than three times the 7.4 per cent that went to the party there in 2000. A June 2004 Compas study goes even further to show why this riding should be considered so favourably. When asked how they would vote in a hypothetical election involving candidates they knew nothing about, a whopping 37% of Surrey North residents said they would vote NDP, with no-name Grit and Con candidates garnering about 25% each. The same study found that support for Cadman was strongest among white older voters; support for Karpoff was highest among the young and voters of Sikh descent—he drew more support from under-40 voters than any other candidate (including Cadman) and had a 3:1 lead among Indo-Canadians.

In May, the NDP scorched Liberal incumbents across this riding. If Cadman doesn’t run next time, the NDP nomination and this seat are probably Karpoff’s for the taking. Who else could win it? Surrey councilors Penny Priddy, a former BC cabinet minister, or Judy Villeneuve, who ran against Cadman in ’97. (Another councilor, Bob Bose, has expressed interest in challenging Nina for Fleetwood—Port Kells.) There’s also Param Grewal, a program officer at PICS (Progressive Intercultural Community Services Society) associated with the National Farmworkers Union, who ran provincially in Surrey-Newton in 2001. TND would be excited to see someone from outside the NDP backbench in Surrey win this seat back. How about Monika Verma, ED of SEEDS (or Joan Smallwood's ex-assistant Aaron Gill, from the same organization), or Greg Terpenning, ED of Surrey Community Services?

THE ROAD TO 40: TND's TOP NDP-WINNABLE SEATS

A summary . . .

1. Western Arctic
2. Hamilton Mountain
3. New Westminster—Coquitlam
4. Palliser
5. Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
6. Southern Interior
7. Vancouver Island North
8. Newton—North Delta
9. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
10. Regina—Qu'Appelle
11. Trinity—Spadina
12. Oshawa
13. Nickel Belt
14. Victoria
15. London—Fanshawe
16. Kenora
17. Fleetwood—Port Kells
18. Nanaimo—Alberni
19. Yukon
20. Vancouver Centre
21. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre
22. Vancouver—Kingsway
23. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
24. Thunder Bay—Rainy River
25. Beaches—East York
26. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission
27. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
28. Parkdale—High Park
29. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
30. Thunder Bay—Superior North

THE NEXT 15 MOST NDP-WINNABLE RIDINGS

11. Trinity-Spadina. After the two Hamilton seats, the NDP’s best chance for an Ontario pickup is this GTA seat. Despite the fact that, her profile notwithstanding, Olivia Chow is not a particularly strong candidate, she will likely be re-nominated, and likely win if the NDP stays strong in the inner 416. Layton’s star power and generally strong performance throughout the recent parliamentary crisis should tip the scales in this neighbouring riding. Yes, the ballooning luxury condo vote and the shrinking Portuguese and Italian communities are not favourable, but Chow will win the champagne socialist Annex vote and do respectably enough in the riding's ethnic communities to prevail.

12. Oshawa. Though not traditionally NDP-leaning, Oshawa came close to sending labour leader Sid Ryan to Ottawa last year, and it presents all the opportunities and risks of a classic 3-way split. Belinda’s defection was a dagger in the heart of Tory fortunes in the 905, and though Colin Carrie squeaked by Ryan in the final days of the '04 campaign, Ryan now stands to benefit from soft Liberals and Red Tories moving to his corner.

13. Nickel Belt. With its mighty union base, this riding was already pretty closely split between the Liberals and NDP. New Democrat Claude Gravelle and Con Mike Dupoint proved in 2004 that it will be a tough climb to defeat incumbent Liberal Raymond Bonin. But with the NDP polling at around 20% in Ontario, Gravelle should have the momentum.

14. Victoria. Federally, Victoria is not an NDP city: the party has held it only once (John Brewin from 1988-93). Still, David Anderson’s retirement presents an open seat that contains two provincial ridings (Beacon Hill and Hillside) that resoundingly elected New Democrats in May. The Liberals had hoped to run Victoria mayor Alan Lowe, but he took a pass, and they chose second-place 2004 Saanich North contender David Mulroney instead. The Cons wanted Russ Courtnall, but will have to opt for an also-ran. While Oak Bay/Uplands may go blue, the Cons are not strong in the riding as a whole, and the NDP would be well-served by a candidate who can confront Mulroney in the centre-left. School board chair Charley Beresford has high name-recognition after her unsuccessful provincial bid in OBGH, and city councillor Denise Savoie is also said to be interested.

15. London-Fanshawe. Must make this point straightaway: Pat O’Brien is not Chuck Cadman. O’Brien’s inexplicable reign over London-Fanshawe will end soon. As an Independent, he does not possess the deep-seated popularity in this community to hold on. Traditional Liberal voters will split between O’Brien and whomever the Grit riding association taps to take him on, while religious conservatives who might otherwise have flocked to his gay-baiting will also have a pleasingly-retrograde Con candidate to support. Rae-era cabmin Irene Mathyssen took 30% to O’Brien’s 38%: all she needs is for his vote to split down the middle and hers to hold.

16. Kenora. In 2004, the Liberals won with 1000 votes over the NDP, who won 1000 votes more than the Cons. Provincially, PCs used to win here routinely, but Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton has sewn up contemporary Kenora. New Democrat Susan Barclay has the best shot at defeating the freshman Liberal incumbent.

17. Fleetwood—Port Kells. Nina Grewal has been pilloried for her silence in the face of accusations that hubby Gurmant shopped her vote to the PMO in exchange for a Senate seat. Woefully under-qualified, an object of scorn and derision in the media, Nina will soon be joining her husband at home. Fraser Heights on the north side of Hwy 1 leans to the centre-right, while the rest of the riding is a mix. Still, the 2004 results—CPC 35.8%, Liberal 29.5%, NDP 28%—mirrored the overall result in BC, despite the fact that the New Democrats fielded uninspiring local warhorse Barry Bell. This is a riding in which the NDP absolutely must put forward a strong candidate from the Indo-Canadian community in the mold of Jag Brar or Harry Bains.

18. Nanaimo-Alberni. There are decades-old entrenched NDP precincts here, with many unionized forestry workers and a CCF fortress in Port Alberni. Yet the retirement gulag of North Nanaimo, Lantzville, Nanoose Bay, Parksville, and Qualicum Beach constitutes the largest contiguous belt of centre-right support on the Island. This area also represents the majority of polls within the riding. Former Tofino mayor and 2004 federal candidate Scott Fraser went on to win a provincial approximation of this riding in May 2005. James Lunney is not the strongest MP, and a credible NDP candidate could take him out.

19. Yukon. The incumbent is quite popular in this riding, and the Yukon has a history of supporting federal incumbents. Larry Bagnell even won the endorsement of the conservative Yukon Party in 2004. The NDP candidate, Pam Boyde, was weak, yet took 25% of the vote to Bagnell’s 45%. A better candidate (hear my cry, Tony Penikett) would be enough to clinch it.

20. Vancouver Centre. The NDP has put Queen Hedy on its dartboard with no serious payoff in every election since 1993. Based on the provincial outcome in May, this riding may in fact be trending away from New Democrats—any candidate would need to be able to make a respectable showing in Yaletown, North False Creek and Coal Harbour, and clean up in the West End. Hence the persistent rumours that Svend Robinson will emerge from self-imposed retirement to seek the nomination here. If Svend runs, this will become an NDP seat. So, too, if Kennedy Stewart runs again. With luck, progressives in Van Centre will not be so easily fearmongered by Martin, and park their votes with the New Democrats rather than squander them on a Green.

21. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre. The Cons won here in 2004 in a very close 3-way race. At that time, the Calvert government had just introduced a tough budget that hurt New Democrats badly in several federal races. Now the province is flush, and the NDP will be the only viable alternative to the Cons. No word on a candidate.

22. Vancouver—Kingsway. The voter migration matrix favours the NDP in this riding, and New Democrat Ian Waddell came close to winning it in 2004. But David Emerson is a senior Cabinet minister now, with strong links in the Chinese-speaking community and a lot of political capital. If the Liberals can run a good possum campaign and trick NDP voters into supporting Emerson to stop the Cons, the industry minister will keep his seat. All depends on who the riding association picks. Is there a Chinese-Canadian New Democrat who could run here? Paging Cheeying Ho or Gabriel Yiu?

23. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing. Liberal Brent St. Denis faced a stiff challenge from New Democrat Carol Hughes in '04. The NDP is growing stronger in northern Onario, and the Conservatives have failed to capitalize effectively on locally-popular positions vis-à-vis the gun registry and SSM. The Cons are likely to nominate unimpressive Terry McCutcheon, who finished a third in the '03 provincial bout; truly, he cannot win, and some Liberal voters will turn to the NDP once they realize that strategic considerations are no longer necessary.

24. Thunder Bay—Rainy River. Many of the same comments for the previous riding also apply here. '04 contender John Rafferty has been renominated—thrice—to run for the NDP in this sprawling northern riding. MP Ken Boshcoff has had little influence from the backbenches, and with the city in continuing economic decline and the Liberals continuing to ignore Northern Ontario, voters will opt for a change.

25. Beaches—East York. Crunch the numbers and the sad truth becomes apparent: by all accounts, BEY is not winnable. Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca is more winnable. Saskatoon—Humboldt is more winnable. For the love of Ed, Random—Burin—St. George’s is more winnable! Verily, BEY makes the tail-end of the list not for sentimental reasons, but because Ontario MPP Marilyn Churley will almost certainly be wearing the NDP sash in the next election, and she cannot be considered anything other than Maria Minna's worst nightmare. Churley has been elected four times from Toronto-Danforth and lives in South Riverdale. More importantly, she knows how to campaign, which sadly cannot be said for her '04 predecessor, Peter Tabuns. One to watch.

After a long and humbling hiatus, the likelihood of a federal election in the none-too-distant future has brought TND is back from the dead for more political prognosticating that no-one will read. Passage of the NDP’s first-ever federal budget now seems all but assured, and Jack is enjoying stature and credibility on the Hill (and in the parliamentary press gallery) no one would have predicted pre-Gomery. The party’s biggest asset remains a stunning degree of Conservative weakness in its BC and Prairie heartlands—expect to see many more gains at the expense of Stephen Harper than Paul Martin. The GVRD, Vancouver, Hamilton, Regina, and northern Ontario are the regions where New Democrats should be spending money, making serious media buys, and recruiting top-tier candidates.

Below is a list of TND's Top 10 most winnable ridings for the NDP in a hypothetical federal election. Projections below are based on current poll numbers, the 2004 results and historical trends, and calculations using the UBC Election Stock Market’s voter migration matrix. The Top 10 will be followed soon by the Next 15 most winnable ridings, and then a quick overview of the country's most endangered New Democrats. Enjoy!

TOP 10 winnable ridings

1. Western Arctic. Undisputably the number one pickup target nationwide. A judicial recount in 2004 gave this riding to Liberal Cabinet nobody Ethel Blondin-Andrew by a meagre 53 votes. Now that ex-NWT premier Stephen Kakfwi has announced he will not be running (as a Liberal or Independent), New Democrat Dennis Bevington should be able to turn this one orange. The NDP has steadily increased its vote total in NWT over the last 20 years, and the cany nomination of a prominent aboriginal politician by the Cons will serve to split Blondin-Andrew's traditional First Nations base.

2. Hamilton Mountain. Perennial NDP candidate Chris Charlton is trying once more in this riding where Liberal benchwarmer Beth Phinney has announced her retirement after 16 years. The Grits are running well-known city councillor Bill Kelly, while the Conservatives picked Don Graves, a man so far notable for general lack of notability. Charlton has run here five times and offers a credible alternative for those unwilling to reelect the adscammers. This open seat, plus Stoney Creek and Christopherson in Centre, should give the NDP a gratifying steeltown trifecta.

3. New Westminster-Coquitlam. Party hack Steve McClurg came within 113 votes of unseating Con Paul Foreseth in 2000, but this is more a condemnation than a plug, since New West should be a slum dunk for any New Democrat in a good year. Steve went on to lose the provincial nod to councillor Chuck Puchmayr, who obliterated Campbell cabmin Graham Bruce in May. Sadly, Steve has not learned his lesson from any of this, and is running again for the federal nomination. He will face ex-MP Dawn Black, who has profile in the community but (worryingly) lost to Forseth in both '93 and '97. Either one could make New West a steal.

4. Palliser. Dick Proctor lost this seat to Con Dave Batters by 124 votes in 2004—ironically, the Martin scare campaign delivered this seat in the dying days of the last election by diverting votes from close-second Proctor to a no-hope Liberal. With Proctor ensconced in Ottawa as Jack's handsomely-remunerated chief-of-staff, the task of winning this one back will fall to transition house worker Joanne Dussel.

5. Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar. This mouthful went NDP in '97, and would have stayed in the fold in 2000 had the present boundaries been used. Nettie Wiebe, outspoken past president of the National Farmers Union turned university lecturer, ran and lost in adjacent Saskatoon—Humboldt in '04 but will carry the party's standard in this more attractive riding this year. This sets up a battle royale between Wiebe and Con incumbent Carol Skelton, one of her party’s few higher-profile female MPs. Last year, the NDP took 36% and the Liberals 14%, while Skelton carried it off with 44%. If Wiebe focuses on the rural precincts where Moe Kovatch did poorly, she can carry it back.

6. Southern Interior. The western end of this riding, from Princeton to Keremeos and Oliver/Osoyoos in the South Okanagan and eastward to Grand Forks, is where Cons have their strength, but this is the smaller part of the riding (despite its stronger population growth). The provincial NDP vote in the eastern end—Nelson, Castlegar, Rossland, and Trail—was well over 60%. No-name candidate Alex Atamanenko came within 680 votes of toppling Reform-Alliance-Con neanderthal Jim Gouk in 2004, in a riding where the Liberal vote barely figured. Head office will be targeting this riding after investing so few resources last time.

7. Vancouver Island North. Note that this seat is not just the northern half of the Island, but also includes a large slice of the BC mainland which has traditionally been decent territory for the NDP. With the New Democrats strong in the resource communities and the Cons holding their base in the retirement homes, this will be a turnout election. The provincial version of this riding went for New Democrat Claire Trevena in May, and NDP candidate Catherine Bell was only 483 votes off in '04.

8. Newton-North Delta. Disgraced secret agent Gurmant Grewal—should he foolishly opt to run again—will surely be a top NDP target in BC, if not the top target. In 2004, college professor Nancy Clegg came 1492 votes behind Grewal; in May, New Democrats Harry Bains and Guy Gentner won the concurrent provincial ridings by hefty margins. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population that goes NDP provincially, but Liberal or Conservative federally. If Sukh Dhaliwal runs for the Liberals again, he will give the NDP a run for its money. Otherwise, the NDP should be able to put Gurmant on permanent stress leave.

9. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek. Overshadowed by the tussle last year between Grit lifers Sheila Coops and Tony Valeri was the fact that this riding ultimately anted up just 927 more votes to a senior Martin Cabinet minister than it did to NDP steelworker Tony DePaulo. Labour council president Wayne Marston looks set to be the NDP candidate.

10. Regina-Qu’Appelle. No word yet on whether NDP vet Lorne Nystrom will vy for his old seat, but if he does, this should be considered top-tier. Conservative support in the West sans Alberta is crumbling, and the NDP is up. Con upstart Andrew Scheer has done little to distinguish himself since upsetting Lorne and must be considered extremely vulnerable. One factor to watch: there are 12 reserves in this riding, and 15% of the total population is aboriginal. If the First Nations vote turns out en masse to dump Scheer, the Liberals could pick up a lot of votes.

Simply put, the definitive takedown on Paul Martin, courtesy of Inkless Wells. A few choice cuts:

The party-wide uprising of 2002 which sought to depose Jean Chrétien represented a kind of contract. Liberals could indulge the mess of kicking out a guy who'd given his life to their party because they could expect to do better—electorally, morally and in terms of policy ingenuity and boldness. Especially boldness. Liberals were finally rejecting a baby-steps, managerial government for one that represented "transformative change" on more than a dozen fronts. How far they've fallen . . . The stunning lack of imagination in Martin's Ottawa—these are essentially the Brezhnev years—is impossible to overstate . . .

The good news for Liberals is that at this point in our history, Canadians can absolutely afford the luxury of thudding mediocrity at the centre of power. Our government stacks up surpluses so phenomenal even Liberals can't spend their way into deficit. Goading a complacently federalist Quebec back into separatism is hard work, and if Brian Mulroney was up to the job, Paul Martin isn't. As for a prime minister who shows up at every international meeting with a proposal for more international meetings, the worst that can be said is that he is not adding to the world's woes.

For the time being, we may be able to afford mediocrity. The more important question is, how long will be be willing to tolerate it?

God's Own Party has won the mandate that eluded it in 2004, and I do not have enough vomit to adequately express how I feel about that. Americans were offered a stark choice between a candidate that embodies what makes their country great (patriotism, tolerance) and a candidate who represents all their country's ugliness (fear, puritanism), and by a margin of 3.6 million or so votes, they chose to stay down in the mire. Nothing--not electoral fraud, Diebold, OBL, or the Right Wing Noise Machine--can be blamed now except for the cupidity and wrong-headedness of the American electorate. "With a bigger majority," Tom DeLay is reported to have enthused, "we can do even more exciting things." Indeed.

Perhaps now is the time to remind readers that, in 1972, Nixon body-slammed McGovern with a blowout landslide that makes even yesterday's numbers look pitiful: 60.7% of the popular vote, every state except lonely suffering Massachusetts (and DC). Two years later, he scurried out of the White House onto a helicopter in utter disgrace, and his VP was in jail. In a sense, for the 55 million Americans--Blue and Red Staters alike--who hoped that Kerry would deliver them from their long national nightmare, Election Day marked the beginning, rather than the end, of the struggle. They're going to need all the help they can get.

Two weeks ago, I laid out the odds on potential Liberal leadership candidates, even though only two of them (Martin Cauchon and Maurizio Bevilacqua) have made semi-public their interest in PM's desk. Cauchon remains the 3/1 favourite, with either Manley or McKenna as the Great Anglo Hope, and unilingual Maclellan or Goodale as the Token Westerner. Who, though, does TND dream about dining with at 24 Sussex in a too-good-to-be-true alternative universe?

Allan Rock, of course. Though I still think alternance will deliver Cauchon to Rideau for the big swearing-in, and frankly I'm none too upset about that. Otherwise, Stéphane Dion is clearly the brightest light in the dim constellation of ministerial Ottawa, and in any process based solely on merit would win hands-down (though he'd kill the chances of a Quebec Grit comeback beyond the island of Montreal). Gary Doer, who is Canada's most popular premier, and Ujjal Dosanjh, who was once Canada's least popular premier, would be sentimental favourites for obvious reasons. Elsewhere in Cabinet: Scott Brison is an exciting up-and-comer who would beat Bernard Delanoë in the race to be the first out head-of-state; Liza Frulla would be the best non-Cauchon francophone; and David Emerson has prime minister written all over him. I would dearly like to see a Liberal with the inegrity and intellectual firepower of Carolyn Bennett or Stephen Owen as top dog, but that might be too much to ask from a party that chose Chrétien just to run the gas works and Martin on blind faith.

An AP story I came across from September is worth looking at, for some interesting additions to the Kerry cabmin pool.

• Retired Gen. Merrill McPeak, former Sen. Warren Rudman (R-NH) and current Sen. John Warner (R-VA), or ranking House Armed Services Committee Dem. Ike Skelton (MO) get the nod for defsec;
• former Clinton Justice Department officials Eric Holder and Deval Patrick, Canuck-born Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, or "Joementum" Lieberman are mentioned for justice;
• Rudman, Hamilton, or Repub 9-11 Commission chairman Thomas Kean for DHS;
• Senate Chief of Staff David McKean for White House budget advisor;
• operatives John Sasso or David Gergen for White House chief of staff;
• Gateway co-founder Ted Waitt or BET honcho Robert Johnson for commerce;
• Rep. Denise Majette (D-GA), Rep. Greg Meeks (D-NY), or ex-Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber (a doctor) for DHS;
• Dem governors past and present, such as Jim Hunt (NC), Gary Locke (WA), Jim Hodges (SC), or Tom Vilsack (IA) for education;
• one-time Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater could get his old job back;
• if not Gep, then IAFF prez Harold Schaitberger or MA Rep. Stephen Lynch at labor;
• Reps. Leonard Boswell (D-IA) or Ron Kind (D-WI) for agriculture;
• Clinton-era Peace Corps director Mark Gearan or ex-CO Sen. Tim Wirth for interior;
• MA envirocrat John DeVillars or former Sen. Lowell Weicker (R-CT) for EPA head;
• Clinton vet affairs secretary Hershel Gober could get his old job back;
• former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell and 9-11 Commission vice-chair Lee Hamilton are touted as potential picks for Secretary of State;
• Western Sens. Maria Cantwell (WA) or Jeff Bingaman (NM) for energy; and,
• Hamilton for CIA/NID.

Links to come if time allows.

Chris Bowers, whose opinion I very much respect, has his lasted electoral predictions posted here. Unsurprisingly for a committed Dem, he's calling it for Kerry, but the math is solid and committed poll-humpers will know that the recent numbers bode well for the junior senator from Massachusetts. To summarize Bowers:

National Popular Vote Projection

Kerry 49.1
Bush 48.9
Other 2.0
Status: Toss-up

Polls Included: ABC, Rasmussen, TIPP and Zogby

Electoral Projection

Kerry Solid 202, Lean 109, Total: 311
Bush Solid 153, Lean 74, Total: 227

States changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH to Kerry

Personally, I think 311-227 sounds reasonable. I'm partial to EV 284-254, with Kerry taking Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa for the win. The newest polls out of Florida, Arkansas and Colorado are just stunning--sure, these could buckle overnight, but they show that 337-201 is not out of the realm of the possible. The key here, folks? It won't even be close.

At today's usual Thursday Lunch Out, both Alicia and Thomas were moved to disparage the monarchy and what it represents to us who kow-tow to Elizabeth II either as Queen of Canada or Queen of New Zealand. TND promised to reprint an eager paean to the crown and sceptre distributed some while back on the occasion of HM's 50th year on the throne, in the hope of moving naysayers to recant; here goes . . .

Friends, fellow citizens:

As you all are, or as the case may be, are not aware, Wednesday marks the fiftieth anniversary of the coronation of HM The Queen of Canada, Elizabeth II. She is rich, she does not like to be touched, and her general mockability has endeared her to generations of subjects at home and throughout the Commonwealth. All of that aside, I implore you to consider:

1. She is not elected. Is this really such a bad thing? An elected president would owe her selection to the government of the day, which in a country like this one would publicly divide her from a hell of a lot of people. Constitutional monarchy means our head of state is free of the taint of partisan politics. Furthermore, having an abstraction rather than a real person means your head of state is less likely to, oh, say, try to build a whimsical missle shield over the entire country or scupper the Kyoto Accord.

2. An appointed President, on the other hand, could never be much more than a dirty sock puppet of the federal government (imagine Romeo Leblanc, President of Canada). The Queen, however, transcends and encompasses both central and provincial governments. This is a purely Canadian thing, and it's one of the main reasons why our federation has lasted for more than 160 years. And yes, Isabelle, that does make us older than Germany.

4. Étienne Tâché, George Étienne Cartier, Laurier, and Jean Lesage all thought the Monarchy was a dandy idea. For what it's worth, francophone Canada has chosen the Monarchy more than once in its history, and in 1979, Lévesque voewed that so long as Québec stayed in, the Queen would stay, too, as a check on Ottawa's grabby hands. (The Queen speaks perfect French, too, which is nice.)

5. The Governor-General is Adrienne Clarkson. And her husband is John Ralston Saul. Granted, the next one could very well be some bachbench halfwit from Sarnia who once cracked a joke in caucus that tickled the prime minister's fancy. But let's just savour this for a while, shall we . . . ?

6. In a few years time, William will be lounging around on the throne, and touring his loyal Dominions wowing the subjects with those Julia Roberts teeth and passable remarks about Radiohead, and all of you will go conveniently amnesiac about those republican mutterings you once made at NDP Youth meetings, won't you?

So let's raise our goblets to Elizabeth, whose corgis are implanted with microchips so that they may be tracked and protected all across her vast regal estates. Her sceptre is a giant Nerf bat poised over the heads of those politicians who would play hard and fast with our Canadian democracy. Should we feel warmly about her? Her own children don't feel warmly about her. Should we pause for a moment of reflection on this, her Jubilee?

I leave that, dear subjects, to all of you.

Michael